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Home › Spain › La Liga › Barcelona — Rayo Vallecano

Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano 1:0: Match Review & Stats

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Barcelona
Barcelona
Home · last 5 W W L W L
Kick-off
Sun 22 Mar · 13:00
1:0
Full-time
Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano
W D D W W Away · last 5
Spotify Camp Nou · Barcelona Referee A. Cordero
Miss
Over 3.5
Over 3.5
AI 53% · book 1.95 ✗
Miss
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 57% · book 1.76 ✗
Hit
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 47% · book 1.99 ✓
Total goals
1
1 · 0
xG (open play)
1.36 – 1.83
Δ −0.47
Possession
61% – 39%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Draw at 7.18 — +9.6% better than the market.

Barcelona arrives at Camp Nou with strong home momentum, boasting a solid recent run and a clear quality edge over Rayo Vallecano. Their potent attack faces a defense that has struggled against high-pressure teams, suggesting Barcelona’s offensive threat will be key. Meanwhile, Rayo’s compact block and resilience offer some resistance, but the home side’s tactical control and superior form should dominate.

  • Home edge in attack and defense
  • Superior recent form and consistency
  • Likely controlled tempo favoring Barcelona’s style

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Draw
Draw @ 7.18 ✗ Lost
AI 15% Implied 14% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

BAR 4-2-3-1 · RAY 4-2-3-1
BAR · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · RAY 13 García 4 Araújo ⚽ 5 Cubarsí 18 Martín 2 Cancelo 22 Bernal 8 Pedri 10 Yamal 16 López 11 Raphinha 9 Lewandowski 13 Batalla 2 Rațiu 24 Lejeune 6 Ciss 3 Chavarría 4 Díaz 23 Valentín 14 Martín 15 Gumbau 21 Pérez 7 Palazón
Subs used · BAR
46' Torres ↑ · Lewandowski ↓
61' Olmo ↑ · Fermín ↓
61' Casado ↑ · Bernal ↓
82' Rashford ↑ · Yamal ↓
90' Espart ↑ · Cancelo ↓
Subs used · RAY
46' Garcia ↑ · Martin ↓
46' Pacha ↑ · Valentin ↓
59' Lopez ↑ · Gumbau ↓
59' de Frutos ↑ · Diaz ↓
82' Camello ↑ · Perez ↓

Statistics

BAR 1 – 0 RAY
61%
Possession (%)
39%
1.36
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.83
15
Total Shots
8
4
Shots on Target
4
6
Shots off Target
3
10
Shots Inside Box
7
6
Corner Kicks
9
0
Offsides
3
12
Fouls
11
86%
Pass Accuracy (%)
76%
3
Yellow Cards
4
4
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

18 · 1 – 0
Raphinha
Yellow Card
▮
8'
R. Araujo
Assist · J. Cancelo · 1–0
⚽
24'
Lamine Yamal
Yellow Card
▮
26'
34'
▮
Óscar Valentín
Yellow Card
Half-time · 1 – 0
F. Torres ↓ · R. Lewandowski ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
46'
46'
⇄
A. Garcia ↓ · C. Martin ↑
Substitution 1
46'
⇄
Pacha ↓ · O. Valentin ↑
Substitution 2
59'
⇄
U. Lopez ↓ · G. Gumbau ↑
Substitution 3
59'
⇄
J. de Frutos ↓ · P. Diaz ↑
Substitution 4
D. Olmo ↓ · Fermín ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
61'
M. Casado ↓ · M. Bernal ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
61'
65'
▮
Fran Pérez
Yellow Card
67'
▮
Pathé Ismaël Ciss
Yellow Card
Pau Cubarsí
Yellow Card
▮
72'
M. Rashford ↓ · Lamine Yamal ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
82'
82'
⇄
S. Camello ↓ · F. Perez ↑
Substitution 5
88'
▮
Isi Palazón
Yellow Card
X. Espart ↓ · J. Cancelo ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
90'
Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Barcelona beat Rayo Vallecano 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 61% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 86% of their passes. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 8, 4 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 9 to 6. For discipline, the referee produced 7 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: R. Araujo (24').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +2.51 units (Brier 0.238).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Over 3.5 1.95 — 53% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.76 — 57% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.99 — 47% Cashed +0.99 Cashed
BTTS No 2.16 — 43% Cashed +1.16 Cashed
Draw 7.18 — 15% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.07 — 94% Cashed +0.07 Cashed
Home Win 1.27 — 79% Cashed +0.27 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.10 — 79% Cashed +0.10 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.36 — 73% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.02 — 97% Cashed +0.02 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.11 — 89% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 4.42 — 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 3.40 — 27% Cashed +2.40 Cashed
Under 1.5 7.50 — 11% Cashed +6.50 Cashed
Under 0.5 28.00 — 3% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 12.50 — 6% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 7.00 — 6% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L +2.51u +15% ROI
Value pick of the night · Draw
BAR – RAY @ 7.18
+9.6%
Edge
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