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Home › Spain › La Liga › Rayo Vallecano — Oviedo

Rayo Vallecano vs Oviedo 3:0: Match Review & Stats

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano
Home · last 5 W D D W W
Kick-off
Wed 04 Mar · 18:00
3:0
Full-time
Oviedo
Oviedo
L D L L L Away · last 5
Estadio de Vallecas · Madrid Referee Alejandro Hernandez, Spain
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 60% · book 1.87 ✓
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 62% · book 1.75 ✗
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 58% · book 1.78 ✓
Total goals
3
3 · 0
xG (open play)
2.45 – 0.99
Δ +1.46
Possession
52% – 48%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 1.87 — +12.6% better than the market.

Rayo Vallecano hold a clear quality edge and home momentum despite recent mixed form. Their stronger attack faces a less robust Oviedo defense, suggesting chances to break through. Oviedo’s recent resilience and compact block could limit goals, aligning with the market’s lean towards a modest scoring game. Expect a tactical battle where Rayo’s pressing edge and home familiarity may tip the scales.

  • Home side’s offensive edge vs away defense
  • Oviedo’s compact defensive setup
  • Moderate pace hinted by goal market odds

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Home Win
Home Win @ 1.87 ✓ Cashed
AI 60% Implied 53% +0.87u
+87%
ROI on stake

Lineups

RAY 4-2-3-1 · OVI 4-2-3-1
RAY · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · OVI 13 Batalla 2 Rațiu 24 Lejeune 5 Felipe 3 Chavarría 17 López 6 Ciss 12 Akhomach 4 Díaz 18 García ⚽ 19 Frutos ⚽ 13 Escandell 24 Ahijado 12 Calvo 16 Carmo 25 López 6 Sibo 11 Colombatto 10 Hassan 5 Reina 7 Chaira 9 Viñas
Subs used · RAY
65' Palazon ↑ · Diaz ↓
65' Perez ↑ · de Frutos ↓
69' Trejo ↑ · Akhomach ↓
88' Alemao ↑ · Garcia ↓
88' Balliu ↑ · Ciss ↓
Subs used · OVI
46' Cazorla ↑ · Sibo ↓
46' Fernandez ↑ · Chaira ↓
61' Ilic ↑ · Hassan ↓
61' Fonseca ↑ · Colombatto ↓
74' Borbas ↑ · Vinas ↓

Statistics

RAY 3 – 0 OVI
52%
Possession (%)
48%
2.45
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.99
19
Total Shots
8
7
Shots on Target
2
6
Shots off Target
2
12
Shots Inside Box
5
12
Corner Kicks
2
1
Offsides
1
10
Fouls
10
82%
Pass Accuracy (%)
80%
0
Yellow Cards
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
4

Match events

16 · 3 – 0
35'
▮
Kwasi Sibo
Yellow Card
J. de Frutos
1–0
⚽
44'
Half-time · 1 – 0
46'
⇄
S. Cazorla ↓ · K. Sibo ↑
Substitution 1
46'
⇄
T. Fernandez ↓ · I. Chaira ↑
Substitution 2
J. de Frutos (P)
Penalty · 2–0
⚽
50'
53'
▮
Alberto Reina
Yellow Card
61'
⇄
L. Ilic ↓ · H. Hassan ↑
Substitution 3
61'
⇄
N. Fonseca ↓ · S. Colombatto ↑
Substitution 4
A. Garcia
3–0
⚽
62'
Pedro Díaz
Yellow Card
▮
64'
I. Palazon ↓ · P. Diaz ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
65'
F. Perez ↓ · J. de Frutos ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
65'
O. Trejo ↓ · I. Akhomach ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
69'
74'
⇄
T. Borbas ↓ · F. Vinas ↑
Substitution 5
Alemao ↓ · A. Garcia ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
88'
I. Balliu ↓ · P. Ciss ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
88'
Full-time · 3 – 0

Match recap

Rayo Vallecano beat Oviedo 3–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.45 to 0.99. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 19 shots to 8, 7 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 12 to 2. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves.

On the scoresheet: J. de Frutos (44'), J. de Frutos (50'), A. Garcia (62').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.75 units (Brier 0.121).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 1.87 — 60% Cashed +0.87 Cashed
Under 2.5 1.75 — 62% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.78 — 58% Cashed +0.78 Cashed
BTTS Yes 2.12 — 42% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.28 — 38% Cashed +1.28 Cashed
Double Chance X2 2.04 — 40% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.20 — 35% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.21 — 86% Cashed +0.21 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.42 — 65% Cashed +0.42 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.34 — 60% Cashed +0.34 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.25 — 81% Cashed +0.25 Cashed
Under 0.5 8.00 — 13% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.10 — 87% Cashed +0.10 Cashed
Draw 3.60 — 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 4.35 — 19% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 5.13 — 14% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 3.50 — 14% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −4.75u −28% ROI
Value pick of the night · Home Win
RAY – OVI @ 1.87
+12.6%
Edge
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