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Home › Spain › La Liga › Elche — Barcelona

Elche vs Barcelona 1:3: Match Review & Stats

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Elche
Elche
Home · last 5 L D L W D
Kick-off
Sat 31 Jan · 20:00
1:3
Full-time
Barcelona
Barcelona
W W L W L Away · last 5
Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero · Elche Referee Alejandro Muñiz Ruiz, Spain
Hit
Over 3.5
Over 3.5
AI 54% · book 2.00 ✓
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 64% · book 1.60 ✓
Miss
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 46% · book 1.97 ✗
Total goals
4
1 · 3
xG (open play)
0.95 – 6.30
Δ −5.35
Possession
39% – 61%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 3.5 at 2.00 — +7.0% better than the market.

Barcelona enter this clash with a clear quality edge and strong recent form, boasting a potent attack against Elche's moderate defense. Despite Elche's home momentum and slightly better recent points per game, Barcelona's offensive firepower and tactical discipline should challenge the hosts' compact block. Expect a lively tempo given the odds favoring goals, with Barcelona likely pressing high and exploiting set-piece chances.

  • Barcelona's superior attacking index suggests control in final third
  • Elche's home form offers resilience but may struggle to contain pressure
  • Match pace hints at an open game with goal opportunities

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Over 3.5
Over 3.5 @ 2.00 ✓ Cashed
AI 54% Implied 50% +1.00u
+100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

ELC 3-4-1-2 · BAR 4-3-3
ELC · 3-4-1-2 4-3-3 · BAR 13 Peña 22 Affengruber 23 Chust 18 Donald 3 Pedrosa 30 Mendoza 8 Aguado 11 Valera 19 Diangana 20 Rodriguez ⚽ 9 Silva 13 García 23 Koundé 5 Cubarsí 24 García 3 Balde 16 López 21 Jong 20 Olmo 10 Yamal ⚽ 7 Torres ⚽ 11 Raphinha
Subs used · ELC
56' Redondo Solari ↑ · Aguado ↓
60' Neto ↑ · Diangana ↓
60' Boayar ↑ · Silva ↓
74' Petrot ↑ · Affengruber ↓
74' Cepeda ↑ · Rodriguez ↓
Subs used · BAR
46' Rashford ↑ · Raphinha ↓
62' Lewandowski ↑ · Torres ↓
62' Bernal ↑ · Olmo ↓
84' Araujo ↑ · Kounde ↓
85' Casado ↑ · Fermín ↓

Statistics

ELC 1 – 3 BAR
39%
Possession (%)
61%
0.95
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
6.30
9
Total Shots
30
3
Shots on Target
8
5
Shots off Target
15
7
Shots Inside Box
26
2
Corner Kicks
8
5
Offsides
2
15
Fouls
9
81%
Pass Accuracy (%)
86%
2
Yellow Cards
1
4
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

17 · 1 – 3
6'
⚽
Lamine Yamal
Assist · D. Olmo · 0–1
A. Rodriguez
Assist · G. Valera · 1–1
⚽
29'
John Donald
Yellow Card
▮
38'
40'
⚽
F. Torres
Assist · F. de Jong · 1–2
Half-time · 1 – 2
46'
⇄
M. Rashford ↓ · Raphinha ↑
Substitution 1
F. Redondo Solari ↓ · M. Aguado ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
56'
M. Neto ↓ · G. Diangana ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
60'
A. Boayar ↓ · Andre Silva ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
60'
62'
⇄
R. Lewandowski ↓ · F. Torres ↑
Substitution 2
62'
⇄
M. Bernal ↓ · D. Olmo ↑
Substitution 3
72'
⚽
M. Rashford
1–3
L. Petrot ↓ · D. Affengruber ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
74'
L. Cepeda ↓ · A. Rodriguez ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
74'
Rodrigo Mendoza
Yellow Card
▮
76'
84'
⇄
R. Araujo ↓ · J. Kounde ↑
Substitution 4
85'
⇄
M. Casado ↓ · Fermín ↑
Substitution 5
90'
▮
Frenkie de Jong
Yellow Card
Full-time · 1 – 3

Match recap

Barcelona won 3–1 away at Elche. At half-time it was 1–2.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 61% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 6.30 to 0.95. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 30 shots to 9, 8 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 8 to 2. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Lamine Yamal (6'), A. Rodriguez (29'), F. Torres (40'), M. Rashford (72').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -6.15 units (Brier 0.065).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Over 3.5 2.00 — 54% Cashed +1.00 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.60 — 64% Cashed +0.60 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.97 — 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.45 — 36% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.40 — 73% Cashed +0.40 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.12 — 91% Cashed +0.12 Cashed
Away Win 1.37 — 74% Cashed +0.37 Cashed
AH Away 0 1.23 — 74% Cashed +0.23 Cashed
Draw 6.25 — 17% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.02 — 97% Cashed +0.02 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.11 — 89% Cashed +0.11 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 3.45 — 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 3.27 — 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 7.00 — 11% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 27.00 — 3% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 8.10 — 9% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 6.25 — 9% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −6.15u −36% ROI
Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
ELC – BAR @ 2.00
+7.0%
Edge
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