Match Girona vs Osasuna January 10, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.84 — +10.5% better than the market.

Girona hosts Osasuna in a clash where the visitors hold a clear quality edge, reflected in their stronger overall profile and defensive solidity. Girona’s home advantage is somewhat offset by Osasuna’s sharper attack against a less robust defense, suggesting a tactical battle. Recent form is close, but Osasuna’s slight momentum and compact defensive block could frustrate Girona’s attempts to control the game.

Osasuna’s defensive resilience vs Girona’s moderate offensive threat
Home edge softened by Osasuna’s attacking pressure
Likely a measured pace with under 2.5 goals probable

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.84 ✓ Cashed

AI 60% Implied 54% +0.84u

+84%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

GIR 4-2-3-1 · OSA 4-2-3-1

GIR · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · OSA

19 Vanat ⚽

Subs used · GIR

79'

Roca ↑ ·

Lemar ↓

79'

Frances ↑ ·

Gil ↓

80'

Kourouma ↑ ·

Rincon ↓

88'

Stuani ↑ ·

Vanat ↓

Subs used · OSA

67'

Gomez ↑ ·

Moncayola ↓

75'

Garcia ↑ ·

Garcia ↓

75'

Bretones ↑ ·

Galan ↓

85'

Barja ↑ ·

Munoz ↓

📊 Statistics

GIR 1 – 0 OSA

46%

Possession (%)

54%

0.69

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.32

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

84%

Pass Accuracy (%)

86%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

18 · 1 – 0

-5'

▮

Aitor Fernández

Yellow Card

V. Vanat

Assist · A. Moreno · 1–0

⚽

44'

Half-time · 1 – 0

46'

▮

Jon Moncayola

Yellow Card

67'

⇄

M. Gomez ↓ · J. Moncayola ↑

Substitution 1

70'

▮

Javi Galán

Yellow Card

75'

⇄

R. Garcia ↓ · R. Garcia ↑

Substitution 2

75'

⇄

A. Bretones ↓ · J. Galan ↑

Substitution 3

J. Roca ↓ · T. Lemar ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

79'

A. Frances ↓ · B. Gil ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

79'

L. Kourouma ↓ · H. Rincon ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

80'

Vladyslav Vanat

Yellow Card

▮

85'

⇄

K. Barja ↓ · V. Munoz ↑

Substitution 4

C. Stuani ↓ · V. Vanat ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

88'

Joel Roca

Yellow Card

▮

90+3'

Lancinet Kourouma

Red Card

▮

90+5'

90+6'

▮

Aimar Oroz

Yellow Card

90+7'

▮

Sergio Herrera

Yellow Card

90+8'

▮

Kike Barja

Yellow Card

Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Girona beat Osasuna 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.32 to 0.69. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 12 shots to 8, 0 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 7 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: V. Vanat (44'). Lancinet Kourouma was sent off in the 90+5' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.84 units (Brier 0.213).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.84	—	60%	Cashed	+0.84	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.62	—	67%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.02	—	54%	Cashed	+1.02	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.28	—	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.18	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.85	—	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.47	—	33%	Cashed	+1.47	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.74	—	33%	Cashed	+0.74	Cashed
Away Win	3.25	—	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.40	—	61%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.29	—	34%	Cashed	+2.29	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.31	—	80%	Cashed	+0.31	Cashed
Under 0.5	9.50	—	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.09	—	89%	Cashed	+0.09	Cashed
Draw	3.30	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.39	—	66%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	4.00	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.84u	−11% ROI