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Home › Spain › La Liga › Girona — Osasuna

Girona vs Osasuna 1:0: Match Review & Stats

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Girona
Girona
Home · last 5 L D D L D
Kick-off
Sat 10 Jan · 17:30
1:0
Full-time
Osasuna
Osasuna
L L L L L Away · last 5
Estadio Municipal de Montilivi · Girona Referee Alejandro Hernandez, Spain
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 60% · book 1.84 ✓
Miss
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 67% · book 1.62 ✗
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 54% · book 2.02 ✓
Total goals
1
1 · 0
xG (open play)
0.69 – 1.32
Δ −0.63
Possession
46% – 54%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 3.29 — +12.6% better than the market.

Girona hosts Osasuna in a clash where the visitors hold a clear quality edge, reflected in their stronger overall profile and defensive solidity. Girona’s home advantage is somewhat offset by Osasuna’s sharper attack against a less robust defense, suggesting a tactical battle. Recent form is close, but Osasuna’s slight momentum and compact defensive block could frustrate Girona’s attempts to control the game.

  • Osasuna’s defensive resilience vs Girona’s moderate offensive threat
  • Home edge softened by Osasuna’s attacking pressure
  • Likely a measured pace with under 2.5 goals probable

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5
Under 1.5 @ 3.29 ✓ Cashed
AI 34% Implied 30% +2.29u
+229%
ROI on stake

Lineups

GIR 4-2-3-1 · OSA 4-2-3-1
Subs used · GIR
79' Roca ↑ · Lemar ↓
79' Frances ↑ · Gil ↓
80' Kourouma ↑ · Rincon ↓
88' Stuani ↑ · Vanat ↓
Subs used · OSA
67' Gomez ↑ · Moncayola ↓
75' Garcia ↑ · Garcia ↓
75' Bretones ↑ · Galan ↓
85' Barja ↑ · Munoz ↓

Statistics

GIR 1 – 0 OSA
46%
Possession (%)
54%
0.69
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.32
8
Total Shots
12
4
Shots on Target
0
3
Shots off Target
11
5
Shots Inside Box
10
2
Corner Kicks
1
3
Offsides
2
14
Fouls
13
84%
Pass Accuracy (%)
86%
2
Yellow Cards
5
0
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

18 · 1 – 0
-5'
▮
Aitor Fernández
Yellow Card
V. Vanat
Assist · A. Moreno · 1–0
⚽
44'
Half-time · 1 – 0
46'
▮
Jon Moncayola
Yellow Card
67'
⇄
M. Gomez ↓ · J. Moncayola ↑
Substitution 1
70'
▮
Javi Galán
Yellow Card
75'
⇄
R. Garcia ↓ · R. Garcia ↑
Substitution 2
75'
⇄
A. Bretones ↓ · J. Galan ↑
Substitution 3
J. Roca ↓ · T. Lemar ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
79'
A. Frances ↓ · B. Gil ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
79'
L. Kourouma ↓ · H. Rincon ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
80'
Vladyslav Vanat
Yellow Card
▮
85'
85'
⇄
K. Barja ↓ · V. Munoz ↑
Substitution 4
C. Stuani ↓ · V. Vanat ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
88'
Joel Roca
Yellow Card
▮
90+3'
Lancinet Kourouma
Red Card
▮
90+5'
90+6'
▮
Aimar Oroz
Yellow Card
90+7'
▮
Sergio Herrera
Yellow Card
90+8'
▮
Kike Barja
Yellow Card
Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Girona beat Osasuna 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.32 to 0.69. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 12 shots to 8, 0 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 7 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: V. Vanat (44'). Lancinet Kourouma was sent off in the 90+5' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.84 units (Brier 0.213).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 1.84 — 60% Cashed +0.84 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.62 — 67% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.02 — 54% Cashed +1.02 Cashed
AH Away 0 2.28 — 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.18 — 40% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.85 — 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.47 — 33% Cashed +1.47 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.74 — 33% Cashed +0.74 Cashed
Away Win 3.25 — 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.40 — 61% Cashed +0.40 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.29 — 34% Cashed +2.29 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.31 — 80% Cashed +0.31 Cashed
Under 0.5 9.50 — 11% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.09 — 89% Cashed +0.09 Cashed
Draw 3.30 — 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.39 — 66% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 4.00 — 20% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −1.84u −11% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
GIR – OSA @ 3.29
+12.6%
Edge
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