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Home › Spain › La Liga › Barcelona — Atletico Madrid

Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid 3:1: Match Review & Stats

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Barcelona
Barcelona
Home · last 5 W W L W L
Kick-off
Tue 02 Dec · 20:00
3:1
Full-time
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid
W L W W L Away · last 5
Referee Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 61% · book 1.83 ✓
Hit
Over 3.5
Over 3.5
AI 51% · book 2.06 ✓
Miss
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 49% · book 1.94 ✗
Total goals
4
3 · 1
xG (open play)
3.88 – 0.97
Δ +2.91
Possession
58% – 42%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 1.83 — +11.5% better than the market.

Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid Preview

Barcelona's clear home edge and superior quality set the stage for a dominant display against Atletico Madrid. Their potent attack faces a resilient but vulnerable Atletico defense, suggesting chances for goals. Recent form favors Atletico's unbeaten streak, but Barcelona's home momentum and tactical fluidity should prevail. Expect a lively pace with opportunities from set-pieces and quick transitions.

  • Home advantage with a pressing edge
  • Barcelona's attack vs Atletico's defense mismatch
  • Atletico's strong form but defensive frailties

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Home Win
Home Win @ 1.83 ✓ Cashed
AI 61% Implied 55% +0.83u
+83%
ROI on stake

Lineups

BAR 4-2-3-1 · ATM 4-2-3-1
BAR · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · ATM 13 García 23 Koundé 5 Cubarsí 18 Martín 3 Balde 24 García 8 Pedri 10 Yamal 20 Olmo ⚽ 11 Raphinha ⚽ 9 Lewandowski 13 Oblak 16 Molina 2 Giménez 15 Lenglet 17 Hancko 8 Barrios 5 Cardoso 20 Simeone 23 González 10 Baena ⚽ 19 Alvarez
Subs used · BAR
66' Rashford ↑ · Olmo ↓
67' Torres ↑ · Lewandowski ↓
74' Fernandez ↑ · Pedri ↓
74' Casado ↑ · Raphinha ↓
88' Christensen ↑ · Yamal ↓
Subs used · ATM
14' Koke ↑ · Cardoso ↓
46' Gallagher ↑ · Gonzalez ↓
62' Almada ↑ · Baena ↓
63' Sorloth ↑ · Simeone ↓
75' Griezmann ↑

Statistics

BAR 3 – 1 ATM
58%
Possession (%)
42%
3.88
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.97
19
Total Shots
7
6
Shots on Target
2
9
Shots off Target
4
12
Shots Inside Box
6
5
Corner Kicks
4
1
Offsides
4
12
Fouls
9
86%
Pass Accuracy (%)
79%
1
Yellow Cards
1
1
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

16 · 3 – 1
14'
⇄
Koke ↓ · J. Cardoso ↑
Substitution 1
19'
⚽
A. Baena
Assist · N. Molina · 0–1
Raphinha
Assist · Pedri · 1–1
⚽
26'
41'
▮
Alejandro Baena
Yellow Card
Half-time · 1 – 1
46'
⇄
C. Gallagher ↓ · N. Gonzalez ↑
Substitution 2
Gerard Martín
Yellow Card
▮
45+2'
62'
⇄
T. Almada ↓ · A. Baena ↑
Substitution 3
63'
⇄
A. Sorloth ↓ · G. Simeone ↑
Substitution 4
D. Olmo
2–1
⚽
65'
M. Rashford ↓ · D. Olmo ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
66'
F. Torres ↓ · R. Lewandowski ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
67'
D. Fernandez ↓ · Pedri ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
74'
M. Casado ↓ · Raphinha ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
74'
75'
⇄
A. Griezmann ↓ ·
Substitution 5
A. Christensen ↓ · Lamine Yamal ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
88'
F. Torres
Assist · A. Balde · 3–1
⚽
90'
Full-time · 3 – 1

Match recap

Barcelona beat Atletico Madrid 3–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 58% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 3.88 to 0.97. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 19 shots to 7, 6 on target.

On the scoresheet: A. Baena (19'), Raphinha (26'), D. Olmo (65'), F. Torres (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.46 units (Brier 0.087).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 1.83 — 61% Cashed +0.83 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.06 — 51% Cashed +1.06 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.94 — 49% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 2.11 — 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.42 — 61% Cashed +0.42 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.27 — 83% Cashed +0.27 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.40 — 71% Cashed +0.40 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.42 — 68% Cashed +0.42 Cashed
BTTS No 3.01 — 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 3.10 — 29% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.02 — 97% Cashed +0.02 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.12 — 88% Cashed +0.12 Cashed
Draw 4.41 — 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 3.19 — 17% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 6.75 — 12% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 26.00 — 3% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 4.20 — 17% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −5.46u −32% ROI
Value pick of the night · Home Win
BAR – ATM @ 1.83
+11.5%
Edge
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