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Home › Spain › La Liga › Osasuna — Athletic Club

Osasuna vs Athletic Club 1:1: Match Review & Stats

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Osasuna
Osasuna
Home · last 5 L L L L L
Kick-off
Sat 03 Jan · 15:15
1:1
Full-time
Athletic Club
Athletic Club
W L L D L Away · last 5
Referee José Luis Munuera Montero, Spain
Miss
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 39% · book 2.55 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 53% · book 1.88 ✗
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 61% · book 1.64 ✓
Total goals
2
1 · 1
xG (open play)
0.58 – 1.22
Δ −0.64
Possession
49% – 51%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance 1X at 1.53 — +3.1% better than the market.

Osasuna holds a slight quality edge and benefits from a mild home advantage, suggesting a competitive edge in this La Liga clash. Their recent form shows more resilience compared to Athletic Club's struggles, hinting at better momentum. Osasuna's defensive solidity could challenge Athletic's attacking efforts, while the visitors' offensive threat faces a tough test against a compact home block.

  • Home momentum and defensive strength
  • Athletic's offensive challenge vs Osasuna's defense
  • Moderate pace expected with balanced goal potential

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance 1X
Double Chance 1X @ 1.53 ✓ Cashed
AI 67% Implied 65% +0.53u
+53%
ROI on stake

Lineups

OSA 4-2-3-1 · BIL 4-2-3-1
OSA · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · BIL 1 Herrera 19 Rosier 24 Catena 5 Herrando 20 Galán 7 Moncayola 6 Torró 14 García ⚽ 10 Oroz 21 Muñoz 17 Budimir 1 Simón 2 Gorosabel 3 Vivian 4 Paredes 19 Boiro 16 Galarreta 18 Jauregizar 9 Williams 8 Sancet 10 Williams 11 Guruzeta ⚽
Subs used · OSA
76' Garcia ↑ · Budimir ↓
76' Barja ↑ · Garcia ↓
83' Gomez ↑ · Oroz ↓
86' Arguibide ↑ · Rosier ↓
Subs used · BIL
60' Berenguer ↑ · Williams ↓
60' Navarro ↑ · Sancet ↓
60' Rego ↑ · Ruiz de Galarreta ↓
69' Areso ↑ · Gorosabel ↓
90' Serrano ↑ · Williams ↓

Statistics

OSA 1 – 1 BIL
49%
Possession (%)
51%
0.58
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.22
11
Total Shots
16
4
Shots on Target
6
4
Shots off Target
6
4
Shots Inside Box
11
1
Corner Kicks
9
2
Offsides
0
12
Fouls
19
80%
Pass Accuracy (%)
80%
3
Yellow Cards
3
5
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

17 · 1 – 1
9'
▮
Aitor Paredes
Yellow Card
R. Garcia
1–0
⚽
34'
Half-time · 1 – 0
53'
▮
Adama Boiro
Yellow Card
60'
⇄
A. Berenguer ↓ · I. Williams ↑
Substitution 1
60'
⇄
R. Navarro ↓ · O. Sancet ↑
Substitution 2
60'
⇄
A. Rego ↓ · I. Ruiz de Galarreta ↑
Substitution 3
Jon Moncayola
Yellow Card
▮
67'
69'
⇄
J. Areso ↓ · A. Gorosabel ↑
Substitution 4
71'
⚽
G. Guruzeta
Assist · R. Navarro · 1–1
Alejandro Catena
Yellow Card
▮
73'
73'
▮
Álex Berenguer
Yellow Card
R. Garcia ↓ · A. Budimir ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
76'
K. Barja ↓ · R. Garcia ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
76'
Jorge Herrando
Yellow Card
▮
77'
M. Gomez ↓ · A. Oroz ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
83'
I. Arguibide ↓ · V. Rosier ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
86'
90'
⇄
N. Serrano ↓ · N. Williams ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Osasuna and Athletic Club drew 1–1. At half-time it was 1–0.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.22 to 0.58. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 11, 6 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 9 to 1. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: R. Garcia (34'), G. Guruzeta (71').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.54 units (Brier 0.146).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Over 2.5 2.55 — 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.88 — 53% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.64 — 61% Cashed +0.64 Cashed
BTTS Yes 2.02 — 47% Cashed +1.02 Cashed
Away Win 2.69 — 33% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 2.14 — 38% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 1.82 — 33% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 3.17 — 38% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.53 — 67% Cashed +0.53 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.41 — 62% Cashed +0.41 Cashed
Under 1.5 2.91 — 34% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.47 — 66% Cashed +0.47 Cashed
Draw 3.05 — 29% Cashed +2.05 Cashed
Over 3.5 5.10 — 20% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.23 — 80% Cashed +0.23 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.11 — 89% Cashed +0.11 Cashed
Under 0.5 8.00 — 11% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −3.54u −21% ROI
Value pick of the night · Double Chance 1X
OSA – BIL @ 1.53
+3.1%
Edge
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