Valencia arrives with a clear home advantage and a stronger overall profile, showing better recent form and a more balanced attacking and defensive setup. Oviedo struggles away with limited goal threat and defensive vulnerabilities, which Valencia is likely to exploit. The game is expected to have a moderate tempo with Valencia controlling the pace and chances. The model favors a home win with a decent margin, while the likelihood of both teams scoring is moderate given Oviedo's low scoring away. Totals lean slightly towards over 2.5 goals, reflecting Valencia's attacking intent and Oviedo's defensive lapses. Asian handicap markets on Valencia also offer value, especially the -0.5 and 0 lines, supporting a confident home side. Conservative options include Double Chance 1X and Under 3.5 goals for a balanced risk approach.
Post-match · 90 sec read
⛀ Lineups
VAL 4-4-2 · OVI 4-3-3
📊 Statistics
VAL 1 – 2 OVI57%
Possession (%)
43%
1.70
Expected Goals (xG)
expected goals
0.77
16
Total Shots
10
5
Shots on Target
4
8
Shots off Target
3
12
Shots Inside Box
5
5
Corner Kicks
4
1
Offsides
4
14
Fouls
12
87%
Pass Accuracy (%)
81%
1
Yellow Cards
4
2
Goalkeeper Saves
4
⏱ Match events
19 · 1 – 2Arnaut Danjuma
Assist · Luis Rioja · 1–0
4'
Half-time · 1 – 0
Lucas Beltrán ↓ · Hugo Duro ↑
Substitution 1
55'
Pepelu ↓ · Javier Guerra ↑
Substitution 2
55'
Diego López ↓ · André Almeida ↑
Substitution 3
55'
César Tárrega
Yellow Card
56'
61'
▮
Federico Viñas
Yellow Card
65'
⇄
Luka Ilić ↓ · Josip Brekalo ↑
Substitution 1
70'
▮
Alberto Reina
Yellow Card
71'
▮
Luka Ilić
Yellow Card
Arnaut Danjuma (P)
Penalty · 2–0
75'
76'
⇄
Salomón Rondón ↓ · Federico Viñas ↑
Substitution 2
76'
⇄
Ilyas Chaira ↓ · Alberto Reina ↑
Substitution 3
Dani Raba ↓ · Arnaut Danjuma ↑
Substitution 4
78'
85'
⚽
Luka Ilić
2–1
86'
⚽
Salomón Rondón
Assist · Lucas Ahijado · 2–2
Largie Ramazani ↓ · Luis Rioja ↑
Substitution 5
86'
88'
⇄
David Costas ↓ · Haissem Hassan ↑
Substitution 4
90+3'
▮
Luka Ilić
Yellow Card
90+3'
▮
Luka Ilić
Red Card
Full-time · 1 – 2
Match recap
Oviedo won 2–1 away at Valencia. At half-time it was 1–0.
In possession, the hosts ran the game with 57% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.70 to 0.77. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 10, 5 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.
On the scoresheet: Arnaut Danjuma (4'), Luka Ilić (85'), Salomón Rondón (86'). Luka Ilić was sent off in the 90+3' minute.
Model audit for this match: of 10 graded markets, 5 landed and 5 missed, for a net +2.75 units (Brier 0.330).
⚖ Bet recap · markets settled
10 · 5 W · 5 L| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Win | 1.72 | — | 62% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Draw | 3.96 | — | 22% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Away Win | 5.75 | — | 16% | Cashed | +4.75 | Cashed |
| AH Home -0.5 | 1.65 | — | 58% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Over 2.5 | 2.28 | — | 48% | Cashed | +1.28 | Cashed |
| BTTS Yes | 2.24 | — | 44% | Cashed | +1.24 | Cashed |
| Double Chance 1X | 1.18 | — | 84% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 3.5 | 1.28 | — | 75% | Cashed | +0.28 | Cashed |
| AH Home 0 | 1.24 | — | 62% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Home Team Total Over 0.5 | 1.20 | — | 70% | Cashed | +0.20 | Cashed |
| Total · 10 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 5 W · 5 L | +2.75u | +28% ROI |