Barcelona arrives in strong form and with a clear attacking edge, while Oviedo struggles to find consistency and has shown defensive vulnerabilities. The away side’s recent performances suggest a high chance of goals, especially given their efficient finishing and solid defense. Oviedo’s home form and scoring ability are limited, pointing to a likely dominant display by Barcelona. The model favors an away win with a comfortable margin and a high probability of both teams scoring. Totals markets around 2.5 goals and BTTS Yes offer notable value compared to the bookmakers’ odds.
Post-match · 90 sec read
⛀ Lineups
OVI 4-4-1-1 · BAR 4-2-3-1Subs used · OVI
89'
Colombatto ↑
·
Dendoncker ↓
Colombatto ↑
·
Dendoncker ↓
📊 Statistics
OVI 1 – 3 BAR21%
Possession (%)
79%
0.99
Expected Goals (xG)
expected goals
2.19
7
Total Shots
22
3
Shots on Target
10
1
Shots off Target
4
5
Shots Inside Box
13
6
Corner Kicks
9
7
Offsides
1
9
Fouls
6
65%
Pass Accuracy (%)
91%
1
Yellow Cards
0
7
Goalkeeper Saves
2
⏱ Match events
15 · 1 – 3A. Reina
1–0
33'
Half-time · 1 – 0
46'
⇄
F. de Jong ↓ · M. Casado ↑
Substitution 1
56'
⚽
E. Garcia
1–1
L. Ilic ↓ · S. Cazorla ↑
Substitution 1
65'
K. Sibo ↓ · H. Hassan ↑
Substitution 2
65'
65'
⇄
R. Lewandowski ↓ · Raphinha ↑
Substitution 2
70'
⚽
R. Lewandowski
Assist · F. de Jong · 1–2
73'
⇄
J. Kounde ↓ · G. Martin ↑
Substitution 3
A. Fores ↓ · I. Chaira ↑
Substitution 3
75'
J. Brekalo ↓ · A. Reina ↑
Substitution 4
76'
88'
⚽
R. Araujo
Assist · M. Rashford · 1–3
S. Colombatto ↓ · L. Dendoncker ↑
Substitution 5
89'
90+1'
⇄
A. Christensen ↓ · M. Rashford ↑
Substitution 4
90+1'
⇄
M. Bernal ↓ · Pedri ↑
Substitution 5
Eric Bailly
Yellow Card
90+2'
Full-time · 1 – 3
Match recap
Barcelona won 3–1 away at Oviedo. At half-time it was 1–0.
In possession, the visitors ran the game with 79% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 91% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.19 to 0.99. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 22 shots to 7, 10 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 9 to 6. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 7 saves.
On the scoresheet: A. Reina (33'), E. Garcia (56'), R. Lewandowski (70'), R. Araujo (88').
Model audit for this match: of 7 graded markets, 5 landed and 2 missed, for a net -0.22 units (Brier 0.055).
⚖ Bet recap · markets settled
7 · 5 W · 2 L| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away Win | 1.30 | — | 75% | Cashed | +0.30 | Cashed |
| BTTS Yes | 1.85 | — | 65% | Cashed | +0.85 | Cashed |
| Over 2.5 | 1.45 | — | 70% | Cashed | +0.45 | Cashed |
| AH Away 0 | 1.10 | — | 75% | Cashed | +0.10 | Cashed |
| Double Chance X2 | 1.08 | — | 90% | Cashed | +0.08 | Cashed |
| Home Win | 11.00 | — | 6% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Draw | 6.93 | — | 19% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Total · 7 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 5 W · 2 L | −0.22u | −3% ROI |