Atletico Madrid enter this match with a clear home advantage and stronger recent form compared to Rayo Vallecano, who have struggled to maintain consistency away. Atletico's defensive solidity at home and their ability to control games suggest they are favored to claim victory. The attacking threat from both sides appears moderate, pointing to a match with a reasonable chance of goals but not an open shootout. The odds reflect Atletico's dominance, but there is slight value in backing them to win and in the double chance covering Atletico or draw. Goals are likely but not overwhelmingly so, making the BTTS Yes and Over 2.5 goals markets plausible but with moderate confidence.
Post-match · 90 sec read
⛀ Lineups
ATM 5-3-2 · RAY 4-4-2📊 Statistics
ATM 3 – 2 RAY61%
Possession (%)
39%
3.29
Expected Goals (xG)
expected goals
0.91
19
Total Shots
9
8
Shots on Target
3
7
Shots off Target
6
16
Shots Inside Box
5
8
Corner Kicks
6
3
Offsides
2
6
Fouls
11
87%
Pass Accuracy (%)
82%
3
Yellow Cards
3
1
Goalkeeper Saves
5
⏱ Match events
23 · 3 – 2-5'
▮
Sergio Camello
Yellow Card
J. Alvarez
Assist · M. Llorente · 1–0
15'
45'
⚽
P. Chavarria
Assist · U. Lopez · 1–1
Half-time · 1 – 1
Koke
Yellow Card
50'
54'
▮
Iván Balliu
Yellow Card
G. Simeone ↓ · N. Molina ↑
Substitution 1
56'
N. Gonzalez ↓ · Koke ↑
Substitution 2
56'
66'
⇄
P. Ciss ↓ · O. Valentin ↑
Substitution 1
66'
⇄
A. Garcia ↓ · F. Perez ↑
Substitution 2
66'
⇄
Pacha ↓ · Alemao ↑
Substitution 3
G. Raspadori ↓ · J. Galan ↑
Substitution 3
73'
77'
⚽
A. Garcia
Assist · I. Palazon · 1–2
M. Ruggeri ↓ · A. Griezmann ↑
Substitution 4
79'
M. Pubill ↓ · C. Gallagher ↑
Substitution 5
79'
79'
⇄
P. Diaz ↓ · U. Lopez ↑
Substitution 4
J. Alvarez
2–2
80'
Marcos Llorente
Yellow Card
86'
86'
⇄
G. Gumbau ↓ · I. Palazon ↑
Substitution 5
87'
▮
Josep Chavarría
Yellow Card
J. Alvarez
Assist · G. Simeone · 3–2
88'
90+2'
▮
Pathé Ismaël Ciss
Yellow Card
Robin Le Normand
Yellow Card
90+6'
90+7'
▮
Andrei Rațiu
Yellow Card
Full-time · 3 – 2
Match recap
Atletico Madrid beat Rayo Vallecano 3–2 at home. At half-time it was 1–1.
In possession, the hosts ran the game with 61% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 3.29 to 0.91. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 19 shots to 9, 8 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.
On the scoresheet: J. Alvarez (15'), P. Chavarria (45'), A. Garcia (77'), J. Alvarez (80'), J. Alvarez (88').
Model audit for this match: of 8 graded markets, 6 landed and 2 missed, for a net +1.04 units (Brier 0.104).
⚖ Bet recap · markets settled
8 · 6 W · 2 L| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 1.14 | — | 85% | Cashed | +0.14 | Cashed |
| BTTS Yes | 2.05 | — | 55% | Cashed | +1.05 | Cashed |
| Over 2.5 | 1.93 | — | 45% | Cashed | +0.93 | Cashed |
| AH Home 0 | 1.21 | — | 70% | Cashed | +0.21 | Cashed |
| Home Team Total Over 0.5 | 1.14 | — | 80% | Cashed | +0.14 | Cashed |
| Home Win | 1.57 | — | 65% | Cashed | +0.57 | Cashed |
| Draw | 4.50 | — | 20% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Away Win | 7.00 | — | 10% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Total · 8 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 6 W · 2 L | +1.04u | +13% ROI |