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Home › Germany › Germany Bundesliga › FC St. Pauli — FSV Mainz 05

FC St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05 1:2: Match Review & Stats

Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga Value pick inside
FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli
Home · last 5 D L L L L
Kick-off
Sun 03 May · 13:30
1:2
Full-time
FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05
D L W L W Away · last 5
Millerntor-Stadion · Hamburg Referee Timo Gerach, Germany
Hit
Away Win
Away Win
AI 46% · book 2.65 ✓
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 54% · book 1.95 ✗
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 59% · book 1.78 ✗
Total goals
3
1 · 2
xG (open play)
0.86 – 2.35
Δ −1.49
Possession
52% – 48%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.47 — +7.4% better than the market.

FC St. Pauli hosts FSV Mainz 05 in a Bundesliga clash where Mainz holds a clear quality edge and a stronger recent form. St. Pauli’s home momentum is limited by a leaky defense, while Mainz’s sharper attack and better away resilience suggest they can control the game. The match may lean towards a cautious tempo given the odds favoring under 2.5 goals, hinting at a compact defensive battle.

  • Mainz’s offensive edge against St. Pauli’s defense
  • Home side’s struggle to convert chances recently
  • Likely tactical focus on minimizing risks and set-piece threats

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2 @ 1.47 ✓ Cashed
AI 73% Implied 68% +0.47u
+47%
ROI on stake

Lineups

PAU 3-4-2-1 · MAI 3-5-2
PAU · 3-4-2-1 3-5-2 · MAI 22 Vasilj 15 Ando 5 Wahl 3 Mets 11 Pyrka 7 Irvine 8 Smith 21 Ritzka 10 Sinani 16 Fujita 27 Hountondji 33 Batz 21 Costa 4 Posch 48 Potulski 30 Widmer 8 Nebel 6 Sano 10 Amiri 2 Mwene ⚽ 23 Becker 20 Tietz ⚽
Subs used · PAU
46' Metcalfe ↑ · Sinani ↓
46' Dźwigała ↑ · Ritzka ↓
65' Kaars ↑ · Hountondji ↓
65' Ceesay ↑ · Smith ↓
84' Rasmussen ↑ · Irvine ↓
Subs used · MAI
72' Sieb ↑ · Becker ↓
76' Kohr ↑ · Potulski ↓
77' Caci ↑ · Widmer ↓
84' Maloney ↑ · Amiri ↓
84' Weiper ↑ · Tietz ↓

Statistics

PAU 1 – 2 MAI
52%
Possession (%)
48%
0.86
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
2.35
10
Total Shots
17
3
Shots on Target
6
5
Shots off Target
4
7
Shots Inside Box
15
7
Corner Kicks
7
1
Offsides
4
10
Fouls
8
83%
Pass Accuracy (%)
81%
3
Yellow Cards
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
1

Match events

17 · 1 – 2
6'
⚽
Phillip Tietz
Assist · Sheraldo Becker · 0–1
40'
⚽
Phillipp Mwene
Assist · Silvan Widmer · 0–2
Half-time · 0 – 2
Connor Metcalfe ↓ · Danel Sinani ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
46'
Adam Dźwigała ↓ · Lars Ritzka ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
46'
Martijn Kaars ↓ · Andreas Hountondji ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
65'
Abdoulie Ceesay ↓ · Eric Smith ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
65'
68'
▮
Daniel Batz
Yellow Card
72'
⇄
Armindo Sieb ↓ · Sheraldo Becker ↑
Substitution 1
76'
⇄
Dominik Kohr ↓ · Kacper Potulski ↑
Substitution 2
77'
⇄
Anthony Caci ↓ · Silvan Widmer ↑
Substitution 3
Mathias Rasmussen ↓ · Jackson Irvine ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
84'
84'
⇄
Lennard Maloney ↓ · Nadiem Amiri ↑
Substitution 4
84'
⇄
Nelson Weiper ↓ · Phillip Tietz ↑
Substitution 5
Abdoulie Ceesay
Assist · Martijn Kaars · 1–2
⚽
87'
Karol Mets
Yellow Card
▮
88'
Connor Metcalfe
Yellow Card
▮
90+1'
Abdoulie Ceesay
Yellow Card
▮
90+4'
Full-time · 1 – 2

Match recap

FSV Mainz 05 won 2–1 away at FC St. Pauli. At half-time it was 0–2.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.35 to 0.86. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 17 shots to 10, 6 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Phillip Tietz (6'), Phillipp Mwene (40'), Abdoulie Ceesay (87').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.24 units (Brier 0.163).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Away Win 2.65 — 46% Cashed +1.65 Cashed
BTTS No 1.95 — 54% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.78 — 59% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.20 — 41% Cashed +1.20 Cashed
AH Away 0 1.89 — 46% Cashed +0.89 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.87 — 46% Cashed +0.87 Cashed
AH Home 0 2.06 — 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.47 — 73% Cashed +0.47 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.20 — 33% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.54 — 54% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.91 — 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.25 — 79% Cashed +0.25 Cashed
Under 0.5 8.50 — 11% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.07 — 89% Cashed +0.07 Cashed
Draw 3.40 — 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.36 — 67% Cashed +0.36 Cashed
Over 3.5 4.00 — 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −3.24u −19% ROI
Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
PAU – MAI @ 1.47
+7.4%
Edge
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