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Home › Germany › Germany Bundesliga › 1. FC Heidenheim — FC St. Pauli

1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli 2:0: Match Review & Stats

Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga Value pick inside
1. FC Heidenheim
1. FC Heidenheim
Home · last 5 L W D W L
Kick-off
Sat 25 Apr · 13:30
2:0
Full-time
FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli
D L L L L Away · last 5
Voith-Arena · Heidenheim an der Brenz Referee Felix Zwayer, Germany
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 59% · book 1.87 ✓
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 54% · book 2.06 ✓
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 46% · book 2.38 ✓
Total goals
2
2 · 0
xG (open play)
1.44 – 1.11
Δ +0.33
Possession
45% – 55%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 3.43 — +14.7% better than the market.

1. FC Heidenheim holds a slight quality edge and benefits from a moderate home advantage, suggesting a compact defensive setup to frustrate FC St. Pauli. Heidenheim's stronger offense faces a resilient St. Pauli defense, hinting at a tactical battle with limited clear-cut chances. Recent form favors Heidenheim's home momentum, while the expected pace is balanced, likely producing a tight, low-scoring affair.

  • Home defensive solidity vs away offensive struggles
  • Heidenheim's home rhythm vs St. Pauli's patchy form
  • Moderate tempo favors structured play over open attacking

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5
Under 1.5 @ 3.43 ✗ Lost
AI 33% Implied 29% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

HEI 4-3-2-1 · PAU 3-4-2-1
HEI · 4-3-2-1 3-4-2-1 · PAU 41 Ramaj 2 Busch 6 Mainka 19 Fohrenbach 26 Behrens 3 Schöppner 30 Dorsch 21 Beck 18 Pieringer 8 Dinkçi ⚽ 11 Zivzivadze ⚽ 22 Vasilj 15 Ando 5 Wahl 3 Mets 2 Saliakas 20 Rasmussen 7 Irvine 11 Pyrka 10 Sinani 16 Fujita 27 Hountondji
Subs used · HEI
56' Kerber ↑ · Beck ↓
85' Niehues ↑ · Dorsch ↓
90+1' Schimmer ↑ · Pieringer ↓
90+1' Conteh ↑ · Zivzivadze ↓
90+1' Ibrahimovic ↑ · Dinkci ↓
Subs used · PAU
46' Smith ↑ · Rasmussen ↓
46' Kaars ↑ · Fujita ↓
63' Ritzka ↑ · Saliakas ↓
64' Ceesay ↑ · Hountondji ↓
88' Metcalfe ↑ · Sinani ↓

Statistics

HEI 2 – 0 PAU
45%
Possession (%)
55%
1.44
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.11
12
Total Shots
11
5
Shots on Target
2
3
Shots off Target
6
10
Shots Inside Box
7
6
Corner Kicks
6
1
Offsides
3
7
Fouls
6
75%
Pass Accuracy (%)
75%
0
Yellow Cards
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

13 · 2 – 0
B. Zivzivadze
Assist · J. Schoppner · 1–0
⚽
3'
Half-time · 1 – 0
46'
⇄
E. Smith ↓ · M. Rasmussen ↑
Substitution 1
46'
⇄
M. Kaars ↓ · J. Fujita ↑
Substitution 2
L. Kerber ↓ · A. Beck ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
56'
63'
⇄
L. Ritzka ↓ · M. Saliakas ↑
Substitution 3
64'
⇄
A. Ceesay ↓ · A. Hountondji ↑
Substitution 4
76'
▮
Martijn Kaars
Yellow Card
E. Dinkci
Assist · D. Ramaj · 2–0
⚽
82'
J. Niehues ↓ · N. Dorsch ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
85'
88'
⇄
C. Metcalfe ↓ · D. Sinani ↑
Substitution 5
S. Schimmer ↓ · M. Pieringer ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
90+1'
C. Conteh ↓ · B. Zivzivadze ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
90+1'
A. Ibrahimovic ↓ · E. Dinkci ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
90+1'
Full-time · 2 – 0

Match recap

1. FC Heidenheim beat FC St. Pauli 2–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 55% of the ball.

On the scoresheet: B. Zivzivadze (3'), E. Dinkci (82').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.94 units (Brier 0.134).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 1.87 — 59% Cashed +0.87 Cashed
BTTS No 2.06 — 54% Cashed +1.06 Cashed
Home Win 2.38 — 46% Cashed +1.38 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.93 — 41% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.70 — 46% Cashed +0.70 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.70 — 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.15 — 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.40 — 72% Cashed +0.40 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.43 — 33% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.53 — 54% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 2.95 — 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 10.50 — 11% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.31 — 78% Cashed +0.31 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.05 — 89% Cashed +0.05 Cashed
Draw 3.35 — 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.29 — 67% Cashed +0.29 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.28 — 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −3.94u −23% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
HEI – PAU @ 3.43
+14.7%
Edge
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