1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund 2:1

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.53 — +8.2% better than the market.

Borussia Dortmund arrives at PreZero Arena with a clear quality edge and recent winning momentum, despite Hoffenheim's stronger recent form points per game. Dortmund's potent attack faces a less resilient Hoffenheim defense, suggesting chances for goals. Hoffenheim's home edge is moderate, but Dortmund's pressing and tactical discipline could tilt the balance.

Dortmund's offensive pressure vs Hoffenheim's defense
Hoffenheim's home momentum vs Dortmund's quality gap
Moderate pace expected, favoring tactical battles

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2

Double Chance X2 @ 1.53 ✗ Lost

AI 71% Implied 65% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

HOF 4-2-3-1 · DOR 3-4-2-1

HOF · 4-2-3-1 3-4-2-1 · DOR

19 Lemperle

Subs used · HOF

60'

Prass ↑ ·

Toure ↓

60'

Promel ↑ ·

Burger ↓

72'

Hranac ↑ ·

Bernardo ↓

82'

Moerstedt ↑ ·

Lemperle ↓

Subs used · DOR

42'

Bensebaini ↑ ·

Sule ↓

60'

Guirassy ↑ ·

Silva ↓

71'

Inacio ↑ ·

Sabitzer ↓

71'

Brandt ↑ ·

Svensson ↓

Statistics

HOF 2 – 1 DOR

46%

Possession (%)

54%

2.11

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.73

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

81%

Pass Accuracy (%)

82%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

16 · 2 – 1

Wouter Burger

Yellow Card

▮

31'

42'

⇄

R. Bensebaini ↓ · N. Sule ↑

Substitution 1

A. Kramaric (P)

Penalty · 1–0

⚽

42'

Half-time · 1 – 0

A. Prass ↓ · B. Toure ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

60'

G. Promel ↓ · W. Burger ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

60'

⇄

S. Guirassy ↓ · F. Silva ↑

Substitution 2

71'

⇄

S. Inacio ↓ · M. Sabitzer ↑

Substitution 3

71'

⇄

J. Brandt ↓ · D. Svensson ↑

Substitution 4

R. Hranac ↓ · Bernardo ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

72'

Alexander Prass

Yellow Card

▮

77'

M. Moerstedt ↓ · T. Lemperle ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

82'

84'

▮

Nico Schlotterbeck

Yellow Card

87'

⚽

S. Guirassy

Assist · R. Bensebaini · 1–1

A. Kramaric (P)

Penalty · 2–1

⚽

90'

90+7'

▮

Julian Ryerson

Yellow Card

90+10'

▮

Samuele Inacio

Yellow Card

Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

1899 Hoffenheim beat Borussia Dortmund 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.11 to 0.73. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 13 shots to 8, 4 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: A. Kramaric (42'), S. Guirassy (87'), A. Kramaric (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.78 units (Brier 0.185).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.54	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.32	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.80	—	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.71	—	57%	Cashed	+0.71	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.70	—	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.92	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.68	—	29%	Cashed	+1.68	Cashed
AH Home 0	2.06	—	29%	Cashed	+1.06	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.53	—	71%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.52	—	64%	Cashed	+0.52	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.47	—	65%	Cashed	+0.47	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.58	—	52%	Cashed	+0.58	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.03	—	96%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.17	—	84%	Cashed	+0.17	Cashed
Under 1.5	6.00	—	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	4.10	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	21.00	—	4%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.78u	−22% ROI

1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund 2:1: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled