Match Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart April 19, 2026

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 3.5 at 1.66 — +12.2% better than the market.

Bayern München continue their dominant run with a perfect recent form, showcasing a strong attacking edge against Stuttgart's less potent defense. The home side's compact block and high pressing style should exploit Stuttgart's defensive vulnerabilities. With a clear quality gap and home momentum, Bayern look poised to control the pace and create multiple scoring chances.

Stuttgart's inconsistent form and weaker offense face Bayern's robust defense.
High expected goals for Bayern suggest an open, attacking game.
Home advantage likely to amplify Bayern's pressing and set-piece threat.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 3.5

Over 3.5 @ 1.66 ✓ Cashed

AI 68% Implied 60% +0.66u

+66%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

BAY 4-2-3-1 · STU 4-2-3-1

BAY · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · STU

11 Jackson ⚽

Subs used · BAY

46'

Olise ↑ ·

Diaz ↓

46'

Kane ↑ ·

Musiala ↓

62'

Laimer ↑ ·

Davies ↓

76'

Ndiaye ↑ ·

Guerreiro ↓

85'

Ofli ↑ ·

Stanisic ↓

Subs used · STU

46'

Jaquez ↑ ·

Jeltsch ↓

65'

Mittelstadt ↑ ·

Fuhrich ↓

65'

Andres ↑ ·

Stiller ↓

76'

Demirovic ↑ ·

Leweling ↓

85'

Bouanani ↑ ·

Tomas ↓

📊 Statistics

BAY 4 – 2 STU

66%

Possession (%)

34%

4.33

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.20

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

91%

Pass Accuracy (%)

80%

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

16 · 4 – 2

21'

⚽

C. Fuhrich

Assist · B. El Khannouss · 0–1

R. Guerreiro

Assist · J. Musiala · 1–1

⚽

31'

N. Jackson

Assist · L. Diaz · 2–1

⚽

33'

A. Davies

Assist · L. Diaz · 3–1

⚽

37'

Half-time · 3 – 1

M. Olise ↓ · L. Diaz ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

H. Kane ↓ · J. Musiala ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

46'

⇄

L. Jaquez ↓ · F. Jeltsch ↑

Substitution 1

H. Kane

4–1

⚽

52'

K. Laimer ↓ · A. Davies ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

62'

65'

⇄

M. Mittelstadt ↓ · C. Fuhrich ↑

Substitution 2

65'

⇄

C. Andres ↓ · A. Stiller ↑

Substitution 3

B. Ndiaye ↓ · R. Guerreiro ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

76'

⇄

E. Demirovic ↓ · J. Leweling ↑

Substitution 4

D. Ofli ↓ · J. Stanisic ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

85'

⇄

B. Bouanani ↓ · T. Tomas ↑

Substitution 5

88'

⚽

C. Andres

Assist · A. Karazor · 4–2

Full-time · 4 – 2

Match recap

Bayern München beat VfB Stuttgart 4–2 at home. At half-time it was 3–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 66% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 91% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 4.33 to 1.20. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 28 shots to 11, 9 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 11 to 3.

On the scoresheet: C. Fuhrich (21'), R. Guerreiro (31'), N. Jackson (33'), A. Davies (37'), H. Kane (52'), C. Andres (88').

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -5.88 units (Brier 0.048).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 3.5	1.66	—	68%	Cashed	+0.66	Cashed
Under 3.5	2.42	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.44	—	72%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.25	—	83%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.14	—	90%	Cashed	+0.14	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.40	—	73%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.16	—	72%	Cashed	+0.16	Cashed
Double Chance X2	3.05	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	3.00	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	5.80	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.07	—	93%	Cashed	+0.07	Cashed
Away Win	7.50	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	4.33	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	10.00	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	5.25	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 8 L	−5.88u	−39% ROI