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Home › Germany › Germany Bundesliga › Borussia Dortmund — Bayer Leverkusen

Predictions by Market: Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen

Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga Value pick inside
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
Home · last 5 L W L W W
Kick-off
Sat 11 Apr · 13:30
0:1
Full-time
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen
L W W L D Away · last 5
Referee Deniz Aytekin, Germany

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · DOR
57%
Best 2.00
Draw
23%
Best 3.90
Away Win · BAY
20%
Best 3.45
Value pick
Over 3.5
@ 2.45
Fair odds
2.19
book 2.45 · +12.1% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 46% · EV +12.1%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Under 3.5 is more likely (54%), but Over 3.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Top pick
Probability 57.3%
Odds 2.01
Show model details
Implied probability 49.8%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 23.1%
Odds 4.05
Show model details
Implied probability 24.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 19.6%
Odds 3.74
Show model details
Implied probability 26.7%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 45.8%
Odds 2.45
Show model details
Implied probability 40.8%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 54.3%
Odds 1.65
Show model details
Implied probability 60.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 33.2%
Odds 2.52
Show model details
Implied probability 39.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 66.8%
Odds 1.57
Show model details
Implied probability 63.7%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 85%
Odds 1.18
Show model details
Implied probability 84.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 95.9%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 15%
Odds 5.25
Show model details
Implied probability 19.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 4.1%
Odds 18.00
Show model details
Implied probability 5.6%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No
Probability 34.5%
Odds 2.63
Show model details
Implied probability 38%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 65.5%
Odds 1.52
Show model details
Implied probability 65.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 19.6%
Odds 2.72
Show model details
Implied probability 36.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 57.3%
Odds 1.51
Show model details
Implied probability 66.2%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 42.8%
Odds 1.89
Show model details
Implied probability 52.9%
Bet quality Low
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 80.4%
Odds 1.33
Show model details
Implied probability 75.2%
Bet quality High

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
DOR – BAY @ 2.45
+12.1%
Edge
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