Match Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli April 5, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

Union Berlin holds a clear quality edge and home momentum despite patchy recent form. Their offensive strength matches well against St. Pauli's leaky defense, suggesting chances to break through. However, both sides show defensive solidity, hinting at a tactical battle with limited goals. The pace may be moderate, favoring structured play over frantic pressing.

Home side's attacking edge versus away defense
Recent form slightly favors Union Berlin
Compact defensive setups likely to limit scoring

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

UNI 3-4-2-1 · PAU 3-4-2-1

UNI · 3-4-2-1 3-4-2-1 · PAU

7 Burke

Subs used · UNI

73'

Kral ↑ ·

Woo-Yeong ↓

80'

Rothe ↑ ·

Kohn ↓

80'

Ansah ↑ ·

Burke ↓

Subs used · PAU

60'

Hountondji ↑ ·

Kaars ↓

73'

Metcalfe ↑ ·

Fujita ↓

89'

Ceesay ↑ ·

Rasmussen ↓

📊 Statistics

UNI 1 – 1 PAU

55%

Possession (%)

45%

1.95

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.33

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

73%

Pass Accuracy (%)

68%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

11 · 1 – 1

25'

⚽

M. Pereira Lage

0–1

Half-time · 0 – 1

A. Ilic

Assist · D. Kohn · 1–1

⚽

52'

60'

⇄

A. Hountondji ↓ · M. Kaars ↑

Substitution 1

A. Kral ↓ · Jeong Woo-Yeong ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

73'

⇄

C. Metcalfe ↓ · J. Fujita ↑

Substitution 2

T. Rothe ↓ · D. Kohn ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

80'

I. Ansah ↓ · O. Burke ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

80'

85'

▮

Jackson Irvine

Yellow Card

89'

⇄

A. Ceesay ↓ · M. Rasmussen ↑

Substitution 3

90+3'

▮

Jackson Irvine

Yellow Card

90+3'

▮

Jackson Irvine

Red Card

Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Union Berlin and FC St. Pauli drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 55% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.95 to 0.33. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 9, 8 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 2. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 8 saves.

On the scoresheet: M. Pereira Lage (25'), A. Ilic (52'). Jackson Irvine was sent off in the 90+3' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.96 units (Brier 0.168).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	2.16	—	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.76	—	59%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	2.70	—	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.61	—	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	2.17	—	41%	Cashed	+1.17	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.78	—	46%	Cashed	+0.78	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.76	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.30	—	81%	Cashed	+0.30	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.58	—	65%	Cashed	+0.58	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.53	—	61%	Cashed	+0.53	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.50	—	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	8.00	—	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.20	—	84%	Cashed	+0.20	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.12	—	87%	Cashed	+0.12	Cashed
Draw	3.36	—	27%	Cashed	+2.36	Cashed
Over 3.5	5.50	—	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	4.00	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.96u	−17% ROI