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Home › Germany › Germany Bundesliga › 1. FC Köln — Borussia Mönchengladbach

1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach 3:3: Match Review & Stats

Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga Value pick inside
1. FC Köln
1. FC Köln
Home · last 5 D L D L L
Kick-off
Sat 21 Mar · 14:30
3:3
Full-time
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Borussia Mönchengladbach
D D W L W Away · last 5
Referee Sören Storks, Germany
Miss
Home Win
Home Win
AI 50% · book 2.39 ✗
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 50% · book 2.17 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 46% · book 2.38 ✗
Total goals
6
3 · 3
xG (open play)
1.55 – 1.14
Δ +0.41
Possession
51% – 49%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 4.35 — +11.8% better than the market.

1.FC Köln holds a clear quality edge and a solid home defensive record, which could frustrate Borussia Mönchengladbach’s attack. Despite Köln’s recent patchy form, their home momentum and defensive compactness may limit Gladbach’s chances. Gladbach’s slightly better recent form and pressing edge hint at some attacking threat, but overall the match looks balanced with a modest pace suggested by odds.

  • Köln’s home defense is a key factor
  • Gladbach’s recent form shows signs of resilience
  • Moderate tempo likely to keep scoring chances limited

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5
Under 1.5 @ 4.35 ✗ Lost
AI 26% Implied 23% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

KOL 4-2-3-1 · MOE 3-4-2-1
KOL · 4-2-3-1 3-4-2-1 · MOE 1 Schwäbe 36 Neumann 33 Berg 39 Özkaçar 32 Lund 18 Jóhannesson 6 Martel ⚽ 37 Maina 16 Kamiński 13 Mala ⚽ 9 Ache ⚽ 33 Nicolas 16 Sander ⚽ 30 Elvedi 4 Diks 29 Scally 27 Reitz 6 Engelhardt 17 Castrop ⚽ 9 Honorat 7 Stöger 15 Tabaković
Subs used · KOL
70' Thielmann ↑ · Neumann ↓
70' Chavez ↑ · Johannesson ↓
77' Kainz ↑ · El Mala ↓
77' Waldschmidt ↑ · Maina ↓
77' Bulter ↑ · Ache ↓
Subs used · MOE
85' Bolin ↑ · Stoger ↓
85' Ullrich ↑ · Castrop ↓
88' Machino ↑ · Honorat ↓
88' Friedrich ↑ · Scally ↓

Statistics

KOL 3 – 3 MOE
51%
Possession (%)
49%
1.55
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.14
12
Total Shots
9
5
Shots on Target
4
5
Shots off Target
2
9
Shots Inside Box
7
5
Corner Kicks
3
0
Offsides
4
8
Fouls
14
79%
Pass Accuracy (%)
77%
8
Yellow Cards
2
1
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

26 · 3 – 3
1'
⚽
J. Castrop
Assist · F. Honorat · 0–1
S. El Mala
Assist · I. Johannesson · 1–1
⚽
4'
R. Ache
Assist · J. Kaminski · 2–1
⚽
7'
20'
⚽
P. Sander
2–2
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson
Yellow Card
▮
38'
Half-time · 2 – 2
Marvin Schwäbe
Yellow Card
▮
52'
60'
⚽
J. Castrop
Assist · Y. Engelhardt · 2–3
Jakub Kamiński
Yellow Card
▮
61'
J. Thielmann ↓ · C. Neumann ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
70'
F. Chavez ↓ · I. Johannesson ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
70'
Cenk Özkaçar
Yellow Card
▮
71'
71'
▮
Haris Tabaković
Yellow Card
Eric Martel
Yellow Card
▮
73'
Jan Thielmann
Yellow Card
▮
76'
F. Kainz ↓ · S. El Mala ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
77'
L. Waldschmidt ↓ · L. Maina ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
77'
M. Bulter ↓ · R. Ache ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
77'
E. Martel
Assist · F. Kainz · 3–3
⚽
84'
85'
⇄
H. Bolin ↓ · K. Stoger ↑
Substitution 1
85'
⇄
L. Ullrich ↓ · J. Castrop ↑
Substitution 2
Eric Martel
Yellow Card
▮
86'
Eric Martel
Red Card
▮
86'
88'
⇄
S. Machino ↓ · F. Honorat ↑
Substitution 3
88'
⇄
M. Friedrich ↓ · J. Scally ↑
Substitution 4
90'
▮
Rocco Reitz
Yellow Card
Florian Kainz
Yellow Card
▮
90+1'
Full-time · 3 – 3

Match recap

1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach drew 3–3. At half-time it was 2–2.

In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 3 from 1.14 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 10 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: J. Castrop (1'), S. El Mala (4'), R. Ache (7'), P. Sander (20'), J. Castrop (60'), E. Martel (84'). Eric Martel was sent off in the 86' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.51 units (Brier 0.211).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 2.39 — 50% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.17 — 50% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.38 — 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.86 — 50% Cashed +0.86 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.64 — 54% Cashed +0.64 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.74 — 50% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.65 — 50% Cashed +0.65 Cashed
AH Away 0 2.27 — 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.41 — 76% Cashed +0.41 Cashed
Under 1.5 4.35 — 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.42 — 72% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.00 — 28% Cashed +2.00 Cashed
Away Win 3.15 — 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 13.40 — 8% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.06 — 92% Cashed +0.06 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.27 — 74% Cashed +0.27 Cashed
Draw 3.60 — 26% Cashed +2.60 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −1.51u −9% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
KOL – MOE @ 4.35
+11.8%
Edge
Forecast →