Match VfL Wolfsburg vs Hamburger SV March 7, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.23 — +13.3% better than the market.

VfL Wolfsburg hosts Hamburger SV in a Bundesliga clash where home momentum is lacking, reflected in recent struggles and a defensive edge for Wolfsburg. Despite Wolfsburg's stronger defensive numbers, HSV's recent form and pressing style suggest a tight contest with limited clear-cut chances. The match hints at a cautious pace with under 2.5 goals likely, as both sides balance attack and defense carefully.

Wolfsburg's defensive solidity vs HSV's pressing
HSV's better recent form and away resilience
Moderate tempo favors a compact, tactical battle

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.23 ✗ Lost

AI 51% Implied 45% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

WOL 3-4-2-1 · HAM 3-4-2-1

WOL · 3-4-2-1 3-4-2-1 · HAM

17 Pejčinović

Subs used · WOL

60'

Majer ↑ ·

Gerhardt ↓

60'

Amoura ↑ ·

Lindstrom ↓

60'

Daghim ↑ · Burger ↓

69'

Shiogai ↑ ·

Pejcinovic ↓

78'

Arnold ↑ ·

Jenz ↓

Subs used · HAM

46'

Omari ↑ ·

Elfadli ↓

67'

Vieira ↑ ·

Otele ↓

67'

Poulsen ↑ ·

Dompe ↓

77'

Downs ↑ ·

Konigsdorffer ↓

86'

Gocholeishvili ↑ ·

Mikelbrencis ↓

📊 Statistics

WOL 1 – 2 HAM

52%

Possession (%)

48%

1.84

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.82

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

71%

Pass Accuracy (%)

72%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

20 · 1 – 2

Marius Müller

Red Card

▮

-5'

▮

Fabio Baldé

Yellow Card

20'

▮

Daniel Elfadli

Yellow Card

C. Eriksen (P)

Penalty · 1–0

⚽

22'

Moritz Jenz

Yellow Card

▮

32'

33'

⚽

L. Vuskovic (P)

Penalty · 1–1

Jesper Lindstrøm

Yellow Card

▮

45'

Half-time · 1 – 1

46'

⇄

W. Omari ↓ · D. Elfadli ↑

Substitution 1

Jonas Adjei Adjetey

Yellow Card

▮

57'

58'

⚽

J. Dompe (P)

Penalty · 1–2

L. Majer ↓ · Y. Gerhardt ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

60'

M. Amoura ↓ · J. Lindstrom ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

60'

A. Daghim ↓ · J. Burger ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

60'

67'

⇄

F. Vieira ↓ · P. Otele ↑

Substitution 2

67'

⇄

Y. Poulsen ↓ · J. Dompe ↑

Substitution 3

K. Shiogai ↓ · D. Pejcinovic ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

69'

77'

⇄

D. Downs ↓ · R. Konigsdorffer ↑

Substitution 4

M. Arnold ↓ · M. Jenz ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

78'

86'

⇄

G. Gocholeishvili ↓ · W. Mikelbrencis ↑

Substitution 5

90+6'

▮

Fábio Vieira

Yellow Card

Full-time · 1 – 2

Match recap

Hamburger SV won 2–1 away at VfL Wolfsburg. At half-time it was 1–1.

In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 14 shots to 10, 4 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 3. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: C. Eriksen (22'), L. Vuskovic (33'), J. Dompe (58'). Marius Müller was sent off in the -5' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.06 units (Brier 0.206).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS No	2.45	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.23	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.43	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.63	—	53%	Cashed	+0.63	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.76	—	49%	Cashed	+0.76	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.79	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.80	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.19	—	29%	Cashed	+1.19	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.48	—	72%	Cashed	+0.48	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.44	—	71%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.33	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.00	—	29%	Cashed	+2.00	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.59	—	53%	Cashed	+0.59	Cashed
Under 0.5	15.50	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	—	92%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Draw	3.75	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.24	—	73%	Cashed	+0.24	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.06u	−18% ROI