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Home › Germany › Germany Bundesliga › VfL Wolfsburg — Hamburger SV

VfL Wolfsburg vs Hamburger SV 1:2: Match Review & Stats

Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga Value pick inside
VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg
Home · last 5 D L W D L
Kick-off
Sat 07 Mar · 14:30
1:2
Full-time
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
L L W W D Away · last 5
Volkswagen Arena · Wolfsburg Referee Florian Exner, Germany
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 47% · book 2.45 ✗
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 51% · book 2.23 ✗
Miss
Home Win
Home Win
AI 47% · book 2.43 ✗
Total goals
3
1 · 2
xG (open play)
1.84 – 1.82
Δ +0.02
Possession
52% – 48%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.23 — +13.3% better than the market.

VfL Wolfsburg hosts Hamburger SV in a Bundesliga clash where home momentum is lacking, reflected in recent struggles and a defensive edge for Wolfsburg. Despite Wolfsburg's stronger defensive numbers, HSV's recent form and pressing style suggest a tight contest with limited clear-cut chances. The match hints at a cautious pace with under 2.5 goals likely, as both sides balance attack and defense carefully.

  • Wolfsburg's defensive solidity vs HSV's pressing
  • HSV's better recent form and away resilience
  • Moderate tempo favors a compact, tactical battle

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 2.23 ✗ Lost
AI 51% Implied 45% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

WOL 3-4-2-1 · HAM 3-4-2-1
WOL · 3-4-2-1 3-4-2-1 · HAM 1 Grabara 18 Adjetey 15 Jenz 4 Koulierakis 41 Bürger 31 Gerhardt 5 Souza 6 Belocian 19 Lindstrøm 24 Eriksen ⚽ 17 Pejčinović 1 Fernandes 8 Elfadli 44 Vušković ⚽ 25 Torunarigha 2 Mikelbrencis 6 Lokonga 21 Remberg 28 Muheim 27 Otele 7 Dompé ⚽ 11 Königsdörffer
Subs used · WOL
60' Majer ↑ · Gerhardt ↓
60' Amoura ↑ · Lindstrom ↓
60' Daghim ↑ · Burger ↓
69' Shiogai ↑ · Pejcinovic ↓
78' Arnold ↑ · Jenz ↓
Subs used · HAM
46' Omari ↑ · Elfadli ↓
67' Vieira ↑ · Otele ↓
67' Poulsen ↑ · Dompe ↓
77' Downs ↑ · Konigsdorffer ↓
86' Gocholeishvili ↑ · Mikelbrencis ↓

Statistics

WOL 1 – 2 HAM
52%
Possession (%)
48%
1.84
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.82
14
Total Shots
10
4
Shots on Target
7
7
Shots off Target
2
10
Shots Inside Box
4
7
Corner Kicks
3
3
Offsides
3
18
Fouls
6
71%
Pass Accuracy (%)
72%
3
Yellow Cards
2
5
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

20 · 1 – 2
Marius Müller
Red Card
▮
-5'
-5'
▮
Fabio Baldé
Yellow Card
20'
▮
Daniel Elfadli
Yellow Card
C. Eriksen (P)
Penalty · 1–0
⚽
22'
Moritz Jenz
Yellow Card
▮
32'
33'
⚽
L. Vuskovic (P)
Penalty · 1–1
Jesper Lindstrøm
Yellow Card
▮
45'
Half-time · 1 – 1
46'
⇄
W. Omari ↓ · D. Elfadli ↑
Substitution 1
Jonas Adjei Adjetey
Yellow Card
▮
57'
58'
⚽
J. Dompe (P)
Penalty · 1–2
L. Majer ↓ · Y. Gerhardt ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
60'
M. Amoura ↓ · J. Lindstrom ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
60'
A. Daghim ↓ · J. Burger ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
60'
67'
⇄
F. Vieira ↓ · P. Otele ↑
Substitution 2
67'
⇄
Y. Poulsen ↓ · J. Dompe ↑
Substitution 3
K. Shiogai ↓ · D. Pejcinovic ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
69'
77'
⇄
D. Downs ↓ · R. Konigsdorffer ↑
Substitution 4
M. Arnold ↓ · M. Jenz ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
78'
86'
⇄
G. Gocholeishvili ↓ · W. Mikelbrencis ↑
Substitution 5
90+6'
▮
Fábio Vieira
Yellow Card
Full-time · 1 – 2

Match recap

Hamburger SV won 2–1 away at VfL Wolfsburg. At half-time it was 1–1.

In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 14 shots to 10, 4 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 3. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: C. Eriksen (22'), L. Vuskovic (33'), J. Dompe (58'). Marius Müller was sent off in the -5' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.06 units (Brier 0.206).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS No 2.45 — 47% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.23 — 51% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.43 — 47% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.63 — 53% Cashed +0.63 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.76 — 49% Cashed +0.76 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.79 — 47% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.80 — 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.19 — 29% Cashed +1.19 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.48 — 72% Cashed +0.48 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.44 — 71% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 4.33 — 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 3.00 — 29% Cashed +2.00 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.59 — 53% Cashed +0.59 Cashed
Under 0.5 15.50 — 8% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.05 — 92% Cashed +0.05 Cashed
Draw 3.75 — 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.24 — 73% Cashed +0.24 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −3.06u −18% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
WOL – HAM @ 2.23
+13.3%
Edge
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