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Home › Germany › Germany Bundesliga › Borussia Dortmund — FC St. Pauli

Predictions by Market: Borussia Dortmund vs FC St. Pauli

Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga Value pick inside
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
Home · last 5 L W L W W
Kick-off
Sat 17 Jan · 14:30
3:2
Full-time
FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli
D L L L L Away · last 5
Referee Harm Osmers, Germany

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · DOR
74%
Best 1.29
Draw
19%
Best 5.36
Away Win · PAU
7%
Best 11.25
Value pick
Under 2.5
@ 2.28
Fair odds
2.01
book 2.28 · +13.6% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 50% · EV +13.6%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 2.5 is more likely (50%), but Under 2.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Top pick
Probability 73.5%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 19.2%
Odds 5.20
Show model details
Implied probability 19.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 7.4%
Odds 10.00
Show model details
Implied probability 10%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 49.8%
Odds 2.28
Show model details
Implied probability 43.9%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 50.2%
Odds 1.77
Show model details
Implied probability 56.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 28.7%
Odds 2.80
Show model details
Implied probability 35.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 71.3%
Odds 1.47
Show model details
Implied probability 68%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 25.3%
Odds 4.75
Show model details
Implied probability 21.1%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 7.5%
Odds 15.00
Show model details
Implied probability 6.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 92.5%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 74.7%
Odds 1.24
Show model details
Implied probability 80.7%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No Best in group
Probability 56.9%
Odds 1.81
Show model details
Implied probability 55.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 43.1%
Odds 2.09
Show model details
Implied probability 47.9%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 73.5%
Odds 1.10
Show model details
Implied probability 90.9%
Bet quality Medium
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 7.4%
Odds 6.80
Show model details
Implied probability 14.7%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 92.6%
Odds 1.09
Show model details
Implied probability 91.7%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 26.5%
Odds 3.31
Show model details
Implied probability 30.2%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
DOR – PAU @ 2.28
+13.6%
Edge
Forecast →