Match Borussia Dortmund vs FC St. Pauli January 17, 2026

Post-match · 90 sec read

Borussia Dortmund enter this clash with clear home momentum, boasting a strong attacking edge against St. Pauli's defense. Their recent form shows resilience and consistency, while St. Pauli struggles to find wins on the road. Dortmund's compact block and pressing intensity should limit St. Pauli's chances, suggesting a controlled game with moderate goal opportunities. The odds hint at a balanced pace, favoring Dortmund's ability to capitalize on set-pieces and quick transitions.

Home attacking pressure vs away defensive frailty
Superior recent form and home confidence
Moderate tempo likely, favoring disciplined play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

DOR 3-4-2-1 · PAU 3-4-2-1

DOR · 3-4-2-1 3-4-2-1 · PAU

21 Silva

Subs used · DOR

71'

Couto ↑ ·

Ryerson ↓

71'

Beier ↑ ·

Adeyemi ↓

71'

Guirassy ↑ ·

Silva ↓

83'

Chukwuemeka ↑ ·

Brandt ↓

83'

Ozcan ↑ ·

Nmecha ↓

Subs used · PAU

64'

Ando ↑ ·

Dzwigala ↓

64'

Oppie ↑ ·

Ritzka ↓

64'

Jones ↑ ·

Kaars ↓

📊 Statistics

DOR 3 – 2 PAU

63%

Possession (%)

37%

3.09

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.54

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

86%

Pass Accuracy (%)

74%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

17 · 3 – 2

Nico Schlotterbeck

Yellow Card

▮

16'

38'

▮

Eric Smith

Yellow Card

Karim Adeyemi

Yellow Card

▮

43'

J. Brandt

Assist · K. Adeyemi · 1–0

⚽

45'

Half-time · 1 – 0

K. Adeyemi

Assist · F. Silva · 2–0

⚽

54'

62'

⚽

J. Sands

Assist · E. Smith · 2–1

64'

⇄

T. Ando ↓ · A. Dzwigala ↑

Substitution 1

64'

⇄

L. Oppie ↓ · L. Ritzka ↑

Substitution 2

64'

⇄

R. Jones ↓ · M. Kaars ↑

Substitution 3

Jobe Bellingham

Yellow Card

▮

69'

Y. Couto ↓ · J. Ryerson ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

71'

M. Beier ↓ · K. Adeyemi ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

71'

S. Guirassy ↓ · F. Silva ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

71'

72'

⚽

R. Jones

Assist · E. Smith · 2–2

C. Chukwuemeka ↓ · J. Brandt ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

83'

S. Ozcan ↓ · F. Nmecha ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

83'

E. Can (P)

Penalty · 3–2

⚽

90'

Full-time · 3 – 2

Match recap

Borussia Dortmund beat FC St. Pauli 3–2 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 63% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 86% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 3.09 to 0.54. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: J. Brandt (45'), K. Adeyemi (54'), J. Sands (62'), R. Jones (72'), E. Can (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.46 units (Brier 0.151).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.28	—	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.81	—	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	2.09	—	43%	Cashed	+1.09	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.77	—	50%	Cashed	+0.77	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.80	—	29%	Cashed	+1.80	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.47	—	71%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.40	—	73%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.75	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.09	—	93%	Cashed	+0.09	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.10	—	73%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Under 0.5	15.00	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	5.20	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	—	93%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.24	—	75%	Cashed	+0.24	Cashed
Double Chance X2	3.31	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	10.00	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	6.80	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.46u	−26% ROI

Match Borussia Dortmund vs FC St. Pauli January 17, 2026 — Result and Stats

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled