Match Aarhus vs FC Nordsjaelland April 10, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.67 — +9.0% better than the market.

Aarhus holds a clear quality edge and home momentum, reflected in their stronger form and superior attacking potential against FC Nordsjaelland's defense. The home side's compact block and disciplined defensive shape should limit Nordsjaelland's chances, despite the visitors' recent winning streak. Expect a controlled tempo with Aarhus leveraging their home advantage and tactical solidity.

Home edge in defense and overall strength
Better recent form consistency
Moderate pace suggested by goal market odds

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.67 ✓ Cashed

AI 65% Implied 60% +0.67u

+67%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

AAR 3-4-2-1 · NOR 3-4-2-1

AAR · 3-4-2-1 3-4-2-1 · NOR

13 Serra

📊 Statistics

AAR 1 – 1 NOR

61%

Possession (%)

39%

2.35

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.31

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

85%

Pass Accuracy (%)

79%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Aarhus and FC Nordsjaelland drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 61% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.35 to 0.31. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 25 shots to 8, 8 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 5 to 1. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 7 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.33 units (Brier 0.192).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.67	—	65%	Cashed	+0.67	Cashed
Home Win	1.67	—	63%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.60	—	44%	Cashed	+1.60	Cashed
BTTS No	2.40	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.25	—	37%	Cashed	+1.25	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.29	—	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	5.40	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.21	—	85%	Cashed	+0.21	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.53	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.53	—	55%	Cashed	+0.53	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.29	—	63%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	14.50	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.03	—	93%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Draw	4.21	—	22%	Cashed	+3.21	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.17	—	78%	Cashed	+0.17	Cashed
Away Win	4.80	—	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.63	—	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.33u	−8% ROI