Match Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen January 13, 2026

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.78 — +12.8% better than the market.

Borussia Dortmund enter this clash with clear home momentum, showing solid form and a strong attacking edge against Werder Bremen's less consistent defense. Dortmund's pressing and compact block should challenge Bremen's offense, which has struggled recently. The pace hints at a moderately open game, with Dortmund likely controlling possession and creating chances.

Home advantage with a notable quality gap
Strong offensive pressure vs Bremen's defensive vulnerabilities
Recent form favors Dortmund's confidence and control

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.78 ✓ Cashed

AI 63% Implied 56% +0.78u

+78%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

DOR 3-4-2-1 · WER 3-4-2-1

DOR · 3-4-2-1 3-4-2-1 · WER

21 Silva

Subs used · DOR

46'

Can ↑ ·

Sule ↓

67'

Bellingham ↑ ·

Chukwuemeka ↓

67'

Guirassy ↑ ·

Beier ↓

67'

Svensson ↑ ·

Ryerson ↓

84'

Adeyemi ↑ ·

Silva ↓

Subs used · WER

69'

Milosevic ↑ ·

Grull ↓

81'

Deman ↑ ·

Schmidt ↓

81'

Mbangula ↑ ·

Njinmah ↓

81'

Puertas ↑ ·

Schmid ↓

📊 Statistics

DOR 3 – 0 WER

46%

Possession (%)

54%

2.02

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.33

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

85%

Pass Accuracy (%)

84%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

14 · 3 – 0

N. Schlotterbeck

Assist · J. Ryerson · 1–0

⚽

11'

Niklas Süle

Yellow Card

▮

22'

Half-time · 1 – 0

E. Can ↓ · N. Sule ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

Marcel Sabitzer

Yellow Card

▮

54'

J. Bellingham ↓ · C. Chukwuemeka ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

67'

S. Guirassy ↓ · M. Beier ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

67'

D. Svensson ↓ · J. Ryerson ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

67'

69'

⇄

J. Milosevic ↓ · M. Grull ↑

Substitution 1

M. Sabitzer

Assist · F. Nmecha · 2–0

⚽

76'

81'

⇄

O. Deman ↓ · I. Schmidt ↑

Substitution 2

81'

⇄

S. Mbangula ↓ · J. Njinmah ↑

Substitution 3

81'

⇄

C. Puertas ↓ · R. Schmid ↑

Substitution 4

S. Guirassy

Assist · J. Bellingham · 3–0

⚽

83'

K. Adeyemi ↓ · F. Silva ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

84'

Full-time · 3 – 0

Match recap

Borussia Dortmund beat Werder Bremen 3–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.02 to 0.33. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 18 shots to 5, 8 on target.

On the scoresheet: N. Schlotterbeck (11'), M. Sabitzer (76'), S. Guirassy (83').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.74 units (Brier 0.089).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.78	—	63%	Cashed	+0.78	Cashed
BTTS No	2.20	—	48%	Cashed	+1.20	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.76	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.20	—	37%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.88	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.40	—	74%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
Under 1.5	6.50	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.11	—	92%	Cashed	+0.11	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.47	—	58%	Cashed	+0.47	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.12	—	74%	Cashed	+0.12	Cashed
Under 0.5	21.00	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	5.60	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.03	—	94%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.15	—	80%	Cashed	+0.15	Cashed
Double Chance X2	3.31	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	9.00	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	6.25	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−5.74u	−34% ROI