Match Genk vs SC Freiburg March 12, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

Genk vs SC Freiburg looks like one of the tighter ties on the board. Both sides show fairly similar overall levels, and neither team brings a clear dominance edge into the matchup. Genk should benefit from home conditions and a slightly more assertive attacking rhythm, while Freiburg still carry enough structure and discipline to make this very uncomfortable for long spells. The most likely script is a balanced contest with goals in the game, but without a runaway winner. A narrow home lean and a realistic draw threat stand out more than a strong away advantage.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

GEN 4-1-4-1 · FRE 4-2-3-1

GEN · 4-1-4-1 4-2-3-1 · FRE

23 Bibout

📊 Statistics

GEN 1 – 0 FRE

51%

Possession (%)

49%

0.85

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.26

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

83%

Pass Accuracy (%)

81%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Genk beat SC Freiburg 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 0.85 to 0.26. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 17 shots to 4, 3 on target.

Model audit for this match: of 14 graded markets, 7 landed and 7 missed, for a net -0.80 units (Brier 0.256).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

14 · 7 W · 7 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes	1.70	—	59%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home +1	1.20	—	84%	Cashed	+0.20	Cashed
Home Win	2.70	—	37%	Cashed	+1.70	Cashed
Draw	3.60	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	2.80	—	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.50	—	66%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.50	—	63%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	2.00	—	52%	Cashed	+1.00	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.00	—	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.90	—	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.30	—	77%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.40	—	68%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.10	—	46%	Cashed	+1.10	Cashed
BTTS No	2.30	—	41%	Cashed	+1.30	Cashed
Total · 14 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 7 L	−0.80u	−6% ROI