Match Nottingham Forest vs FC Midtjylland March 12, 2026

Post-match · 90 sec read

Nottingham Forest vs FC Midtjylland looks far more balanced than the prices suggest. Forest have home advantage and some strong European attacking numbers, but their recent rhythm is unstable and their domestic form has been shaky for a while. Midtjylland arrive in much better shape, with more confidence, sharper finishing and a stronger overall competitive profile, so the away side should be much more dangerous than the market implies. The game still carries a healthy goal threat, but the clearest angle is that the visitors have a serious chance to avoid defeat and are live to win outright.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

NOT 3-4-2-1 · MID 3-5-2

NOT · 3-4-2-1 3-5-2 · MID

19 Jesus

📊 Statistics

NOT 0 – 1 MID

57%

Possession (%)

43%

1.68

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.69

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

83%

Pass Accuracy (%)

76%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

FC Midtjylland won 1–0 away at Nottingham Forest. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 57% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.68 to 0.69. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 22 shots to 6, 6 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 2. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves.

Model audit for this match: of 12 graded markets, 7 landed and 5 missed, for a net +8.00 units (Brier 0.255).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

12 · 7 W · 5 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes	1.90	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	6.10	—	36%	Cashed	+5.10	Cashed
Double Chance X2	2.50	—	65%	Cashed	+1.50	Cashed
AH Away 0	4.60	—	50%	Cashed	+3.60	Cashed
Draw	4.50	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.80	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.30	—	81%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.10	—	95%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.50	—	67%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.20	—	42%	Cashed	+1.20	Cashed
BTTS No	2.00	—	44%	Cashed	+1.00	Cashed
Home Win	1.60	—	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 12 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 5 L	+8.00u	+67% ROI

Match Nottingham Forest vs FC Midtjylland March 12, 2026 — Result and Stats

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled