Match Bayern München vs VfL Wolfsburg January 11, 2026

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS Yes at 1.85 — +13.7% better than the market.

Bayern München enter this clash with strong home momentum, boasting a potent attack that outmatches Wolfsburg's defensive setup. Their recent form shows consistent wins, while Wolfsburg struggles to maintain stability away. The home side's pressing edge and tactical discipline should exploit Wolfsburg's vulnerabilities, likely resulting in a high-scoring game given the expected open tempo.

Home attacking threat vs away defensive frailties
Superior recent form and home confidence
Likely open game favoring goals

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · BTTS Yes

BTTS Yes @ 1.85 ✓ Cashed

AI 61% Implied 54% +0.85u

+85%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

BAY 4-2-3-1 · WOL 4-2-3-1

BAY · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · WOL

9 Kane ⚽

Subs used · BAY

57'

Guerreiro ↑ ·

Karl ↓

58'

Goretzka ↑ ·

Pavlovic ↓

77'

Ito ↑ ·

Upamecano ↓

77'

Mike ↑ ·

Kane ↓

83'

Chavez ↑ ·

Olise ↓

Subs used · WOL

64'

Daghim ↑ ·

Wimmer ↓

64'

Gerhardt ↑ ·

Svanberg ↓

77'

Paredes ↑ ·

Majer ↓

86'

Vavro ↑ ·

Pejcinovic ↓

86'

Hensel ↑ ·

Eriksen ↓

📊 Statistics

BAY 8 – 1 WOL

68%

Possession (%)

32%

3.65

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.36

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

92%

Pass Accuracy (%)

78%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

20 · 8 – 1

K. Fischer

Own goal · 1–0

⚽

13'

⚽

D. Pejcinovic

Assist · L. Majer · 1–1

L. Diaz

Assist · M. Olise · 2–1

⚽

30'

45+1'

▮

Mattias Svanberg

Yellow Card

Half-time · 2 – 1

M. Olise

Assist · K. Laimer · 3–1

⚽

50'

M. Jenz

Own goal · 4–1

⚽

53'

R. Guerreiro ↓ · L. Karl ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

57'

L. Goretzka ↓ · A. Pavlovic ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

58'

64'

⇄

A. Daghim ↓ · P. Wimmer ↑

Substitution 1

64'

⇄

Y. Gerhardt ↓ · M. Svanberg ↑

Substitution 2

R. Guerreiro

Assist · H. Kane · 5–1

⚽

68'

H. Kane

Assist · L. Diaz · 6–1

⚽

69'

M. Olise

Assist · L. Diaz · 7–1

⚽

76'

H. Ito ↓ · D. Upamecano ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

77'

W. Mike ↓ · H. Kane ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

77'

⇄

K. Paredes ↓ · L. Majer ↑

Substitution 3

F. Chavez ↓ · M. Olise ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

83'

86'

⇄

D. Vavro ↓ · D. Pejcinovic ↑

Substitution 4

86'

⇄

P. Hensel ↓ · C. Eriksen ↑

Substitution 5

L. Goretzka

Assist · J. Tah · 8–1

⚽

88'

Full-time · 8 – 1

Match recap

Bayern München beat VfL Wolfsburg 8–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 68% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 92% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 3.65 to 1.36. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 8, 10 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 6 to 2. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 8 from 3.65 expected goals.

On the scoresheet: K. Fischer (5'), D. Pejcinovic (13'), L. Diaz (30'), M. Olise (50'), M. Jenz (53'), R. Guerreiro (68'), H. Kane (69'), M. Olise (76'), L. Goretzka (88').

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -6.15 units (Brier 0.045).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes	1.85	—	61%	Cashed	+0.85	Cashed
Under 3.5	2.61	—	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.05	—	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	11.93	—	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	7.67	—	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	1.53	—	66%	Cashed	+0.53	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.03	—	97%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Home Win	1.14	—	85%	Cashed	+0.14	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.03	—	85%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.21	—	82%	Cashed	+0.21	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.06	—	93%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Under 2.5	4.70	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	12.00	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	22.00	—	3%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	15.00	—	3%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 8 L	−6.15u	−41% ROI