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Home World World Cup - Qualification Europe Poland — Netherlands

Predictions Poland vs Netherlands November 14, 2025 — Predictions and Probabilities

World   /   World Cup - Qualification Europe Value pick inside
Poland
Poland
Home · last 5 W D W W L
Kick-off
Fri 14 Nov · 19:45
1:1
Full-time
Netherlands
Netherlands
W W W D W Away · last 5
Referee Maurizio Mariani, Italy
VALUE
Home Win · POL
20%
Best 4.75
Draw
23%
Best 3.80
Away Win · NET
57%
Best 1.71
Value pick
Over 3.5
@ 2.75
Fair odds
2.50
book 2.75 · +10.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 40% · EV +10.0%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Under 3.5 is more likely (60%), but Over 3.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Longshot value
Probability 20%
Odds 5.25
Show model details
Implied probability 19%
Bet quality Low
Away Win Top pick
Probability 57%
Odds 1.71
Show model details
Implied probability 58.5%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 23%
Odds 4.22
Show model details
Implied probability 23.7%
Bet quality Medium
Totals 7 markets
Over 2.5
Probability 61%
Odds 1.75
Show model details
Implied probability 57.1%
Bet quality Medium
Over 3.5
Probability 40%
Odds 2.75
Show model details
Implied probability 36.4%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 85%
Odds 1.22
Show model details
Implied probability 82%
Bet quality High
Over 0.5 Top pick
Probability 95%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality High
Under 3.5
Probability 60%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 66.7%
Bet quality Medium
Under 2.5
Probability 39%
Odds 2.25
Show model details
Implied probability 44.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 5%
Odds 15.00
Show model details
Implied probability 6.7%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 1 market
BTTS Yes Top pick
Probability 60%
Odds 1.73
Show model details
Implied probability 57.8%
Bet quality Medium
Asian Handicap 1 market
AH Home +2 Top pick
Probability 75%
Odds 1.23
Show model details
Implied probability 81.3%
Bet quality Medium
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X
Probability 43%
Odds 2.30
Show model details
Implied probability 43.5%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 80%
Odds 1.21
Show model details
Implied probability 82.6%
Bet quality High

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
POL – NET @ 2.75
+10.0%
Edge
Forecast →