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Home › World › World Cup - Qualification Europe › Poland — Netherlands

Predictions by Market: Poland vs Netherlands

World   /   World Cup - Qualification Europe Value pick inside
Poland
Poland
Home · last 5 W D W W L
Kick-off
Fri 14 Nov · 19:45
1:1
Full-time
Netherlands
Netherlands
W W W D W Away · last 5
Referee Maurizio Mariani, Italy

Outcome probabilities

VALUE
Home Win · POL
20%
Best 4.75
Draw
23%
Best 3.80
Away Win · NED
57%
Best 1.71
Value pick
Over 3.5
@ 2.75
Fair odds
2.50
book 2.75 · +10.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 40% · EV +10.0%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Under 3.5 is more likely (60%), but Over 3.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Longshot value
Probability 20%
Odds 5.25
Show model details
Implied probability 19%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win Top pick
Probability 57%
Odds 1.71
Show model details
Implied probability 58.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 23%
Odds 4.22
Show model details
Implied probability 23.7%
Bet quality Medium
Totals 7 markets
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 61%
Odds 1.75
Show model details
Implied probability 57.1%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 40%
Odds 2.75
Show model details
Implied probability 36.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 85%
Odds 1.22
Show model details
Implied probability 82%
Bet quality High
✓ Over 0.5 Top pick
Probability 95%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality High
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 60%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 66.7%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 39%
Odds 2.25
Show model details
Implied probability 44.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 5%
Odds 15.00
Show model details
Implied probability 6.7%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 1 market
✓ BTTS Yes Top pick
Probability 60%
Odds 1.73
Show model details
Implied probability 57.8%
Bet quality Medium
Asian Handicap 1 market
✓ AH Home +2 Top pick
Probability 75%
Odds 1.23
Show model details
Implied probability 81.3%
Bet quality Medium
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance 1X
Probability 43%
Odds 2.30
Show model details
Implied probability 43.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 80%
Odds 1.21
Show model details
Implied probability 82.6%
Bet quality High

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
POL – NED @ 2.75
+10.0%
Edge
Forecast →