VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Freiburg 3:4 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.58 — +9.4% better than the market.

SC Freiburg arrives with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand despite playing away at Volkswagen Arena. Wolfsburg’s defensive solidity faces a stern test against Freiburg’s efficient attack, though the home side’s compact block and set-piece threat could keep the match tight. The pace hints at a moderately open game, with both teams capable of scoring but also cautious in approach.

Freiburg’s defensive resilience vs Wolfsburg’s moderate attack
Home crowd support may boost Wolfsburg’s discipline
Recent form favors Freiburg’s momentum

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2

Double Chance X2 @ 1.58 ✓ Cashed

AI 69% Implied 63% +0.58u

+58%

ROI on stake

Lineups

WOL 4-2-3-1 · FRE 4-2-3-1

WOL · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · FRE

17 Pejčinović ⚽

Subs used · WOL

68'

Svanberg ↑ ·

Majer ↓

80'

Lindstrom ↑ ·

Eriksen ↓

80'

Daghim ↑ ·

Wimmer ↓

88'

Burger ↑ ·

Kumbedi ↓

Subs used · FRE

46'

Grifo ↑ ·

Osterhage ↓

67'

Scherhant ↑ ·

Treu ↓

79'

Hofler ↑ ·

Manzambi ↓

79'

Adamu ↑ ·

Holer ↓

90+1'

Matanovic ↑ ·

Suzuki ↓

Statistics

WOL 3 – 4 FRE

56%

Possession (%)

44%

1.78

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

3.66

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

81%

Pass Accuracy (%)

79%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

18 · 3 – 4

⚽

P. Treu

Assist · Y. Suzuki · 0–1

D. Pejcinovic

Assist · P. Wimmer · 1–1

⚽

13'

Half-time · 1 – 1

46'

⇄

V. Grifo ↓ · P. Osterhage ↑

Substitution 1

D. Pejcinovic

2–1

⚽

49'

56'

⚽

V. Grifo (P)

Penalty · 2–2

67'

⇄

D. Scherhant ↓ · P. Treu ↑

Substitution 2

M. Svanberg ↓ · L. Majer ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

68'

D. Pejcinovic

Assist · P. Wimmer · 3–2

⚽

69'

71'

⚽

J. Seelt

Own goal · 3–3

78'

⚽

D. Scherhant

Assist · J. Manzambi · 3–4

79'

⇄

N. Hofler ↓ · J. Manzambi ↑

Substitution 3

79'

⇄

J. Adamu ↓ · L. Holer ↑

Substitution 4

J. Lindstrom ↓ · C. Eriksen ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

80'

A. Daghim ↓ · P. Wimmer ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

80'

Maximilian Arnold

Yellow Card

▮

82'

83'

▮

Anthony Jung

Yellow Card

J. Burger ↓ · S. Kumbedi ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

88'

90+1'

⇄

I. Matanovic ↓ · Y. Suzuki ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 3 – 4

Match recap

SC Freiburg won 4–3 away at VfL Wolfsburg. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 56% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 3.66 to 1.78. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 6 to 2.

On the scoresheet: P. Treu (5'), D. Pejcinovic (13'), D. Pejcinovic (49'), V. Grifo (56'), D. Pejcinovic (69'), J. Seelt (71'), D. Scherhant (78').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.65 units (Brier 0.192).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS No	2.29	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.10	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.86	—	52%	Cashed	+0.86	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.67	—	55%	Cashed	+0.67	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.06	—	44%	Cashed	+1.06	Cashed
Home Win	2.58	—	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.90	—	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.58	—	69%	Cashed	+0.58	Cashed
Away Win	2.82	—	44%	Cashed	+1.82	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.42	—	70%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.05	—	30%	Cashed	+2.05	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.49	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.10	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	—	93%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Under 0.5	13.40	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.26	—	76%	Cashed	+0.26	Cashed
Draw	3.66	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.65u	−10% ROI

VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Freiburg 3:4: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled