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Home › Germany › Germany Bundesliga › FC St. Pauli — 1. FC Heidenheim

Match FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Heidenheim December 13, 2025 — Result and Stats

Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga Value pick inside
FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli
Home · last 5 D L L L L
Kick-off
Sat 13 Dec · 14:30
2:1
Full-time
1. FC Heidenheim
1. FC Heidenheim
L W D W L Away · last 5
Millerntor-Stadion · Hamburg Referee Sören Storks, Germany
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 62% · book 1.84 ✗
Miss
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 57% · book 1.90 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 56% · book 1.88 ✗
Total goals
3
2 · 1
xG (open play)
0.80 – 2.15
Δ −1.35
Possession
36% – 64%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.84 — +13.2% better than the market.

FC St. Pauli hosts 1. FC Heidenheim in a Bundesliga clash where the visitors hold a slight quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they carry momentum into this fixture. St. Pauli’s defensive solidity faces a probing Heidenheim attack, but the home side’s compact block and home crowd could limit chances. Expect a cautious tempo with a leaning towards a low-scoring affair given both teams’ defensive strengths and recent goal trends.

  • Heidenheim’s recent wins boost confidence.
  • St. Pauli’s home defense remains resilient.
  • Moderate pace hints at tactical discipline over open play.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 1.84 ✗ Lost
AI 62% Implied 54% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

PAU 3-4-2-1 · HEI 3-4-2-1
PAU · 3-4-2-1 3-4-2-1 · HEI 22 Vasilj 5 Wahl 8 Smith 3 Mets 11 Pyrka 6 Sands 7 Irvine 23 Oppie 16 Fujita 28 Lage 19 Kaars ⚽ 41 Ramaj 27 Keller 6 Mainka 4 Siersleben 2 Busch 3 Schöppner 16 Niehues 19 Föhrenbach 21 Beck 22 Ibrahimović 18 Pieringer ⚽
Subs used · PAU
46' Dzwigala ↑ · Pereira Lage ↓
76' Jones ↑ · Kaars ↓
90+6' Metcalfe ↑
Subs used · HEI
46' H. Traore ↑ · Keller ↓
46' Schimmer ↑ · Schoppner ↓
64' Honsak ↑ · Siersleben ↓
64' Kaufmann ↑ · Beck ↓
78' Dorsch ↑ · Niehues ↓

📊 Statistics

PAU 2 – 1 HEI
36%
Possession (%)
64%
0.80
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
2.15
8
Total Shots
20
5
Shots on Target
7
2
Shots off Target
6
7
Shots Inside Box
14
4
Corner Kicks
11
0
Offsides
5
6
Fouls
15
72%
Pass Accuracy (%)
84%
2
Yellow Cards
3
6
Goalkeeper Saves
2

⏱ Match events

17 · 2 – 1
James Sands
Yellow Card
▮
25'
M. Kaars
Assist · J. Fujita · 1–0
⚽
35'
42'
▮
Jan Schöppner
Yellow Card
Eric Smith
Red Card
▮
45'
Half-time · 1 – 0
A. Dzwigala ↓ · M. Pereira Lage ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
46'
46'
⇄
O. H. Traore ↓ · T. Keller ↑
Substitution 1
46'
⇄
S. Schimmer ↓ · J. Schoppner ↑
Substitution 2
M. Kaars
Assist · J. Fujita · 2–0
⚽
53'
64'
⇄
M. Honsak ↓ · T. Siersleben ↑
Substitution 3
64'
⇄
M. Kaufmann ↓ · A. Beck ↑
Substitution 4
64'
⚽
M. Pieringer
Assist · S. Schimmer · 2–1
Arkadiusz Pyrka
Yellow Card
▮
69'
73'
▮
Mikkel Kaufmann
Yellow Card
R. Jones ↓ · M. Kaars ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
76'
78'
⇄
N. Dorsch ↓ · J. Niehues ↑
Substitution 5
87'
▮
Marvin Pieringer
Yellow Card
C. Metcalfe ↓ ·
Substitution 3
⇄
90+6'
Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

FC St. Pauli beat 1. FC Heidenheim 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 64% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 84% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.15 to 0.80. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 8, 7 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 11 to 4. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: M. Kaars (35'), M. Kaars (53'), M. Pieringer (64'). Eric Smith was sent off in the 45' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.32 units (Brier 0.182).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 1.84 — 62% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.90 — 57% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.88 — 56% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.02 — 43% Cashed +1.02 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.97 — 44% Cashed +0.97 Cashed
Over 2.5 2.23 — 38% Cashed +1.23 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.20 — 36% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 4.26 — 31% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.30 — 81% Cashed +0.30 Cashed
AH Away 0 3.03 — 31% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.27 — 69% Cashed +0.27 Cashed
Under 0.5 9.00 — 12% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.08 — 88% Cashed +0.08 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.42 — 43% Cashed +0.42 Cashed
Draw 3.49 — 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.39 — 64% Cashed +0.39 Cashed
Over 3.5 4.20 — 19% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −4.32u −25% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
PAU – HEI @ 1.84
+13.2%
Edge
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