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Home › Germany › Germany Bundesliga › VfL Wolfsburg — Bayer Leverkusen

VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen 1:3: Match Review & Stats

Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga Value pick inside
VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg
Home · last 5 D L W D L
Kick-off
Sat 22 Nov · 14:30
1:3
Full-time
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen
L W W L D Away · last 5
Volkswagen Arena · Wolfsburg Referee Robert Hartmann, Germany
Hit
Away Win
Away Win
AI 56% · book 2.10 ✓
Hit
Over 3.5
Over 3.5
AI 38% · book 2.65 ✓
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 60% · book 1.68 ✓
Total goals
4
1 · 3
xG (open play)
2.22 – 1.12
Δ +1.10
Possession
38% – 62%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.35 — +7.2% better than the market.

Bayer Leverkusen arrives at Volkswagen Arena with clear momentum, boasting a strong recent form compared to Wolfsburg's struggles. Their offensive edge against Wolfsburg's defense suggests they can unlock chances, while Wolfsburg's home advantage is limited by their poor form and defensive vulnerabilities. Expect Leverkusen to press high and exploit set-piece opportunities in a match leaning towards a lively goal environment.

  • Leverkusen's superior quality and recent wins
  • Wolfsburg's defensive frailties at home
  • Potential for an open, attacking game

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2 @ 1.35 ✓ Cashed
AI 79% Implied 74% +0.35u
+35%
ROI on stake

Lineups

WOL 4-2-3-1 · BAY 3-4-2-1
WOL · 4-2-3-1 3-4-2-1 · BAY 1 Grabara 26 Kumbedi 3 Vavro ⚽ 14 Seelt 25 Zehnter 31 Gerhardt 27 Arnold 39 Wimmer 10 Majer 9 Amoura 17 Pejčinović 1 Flekken 8 Andrich 5 Badé 12 Tapsoba ⚽ 7 Hofmann ⚽ 30 Maza 24 García 20 Grimaldo 10 Tillman ⚽ 19 Poku 14 Schick
Subs used · WOL
46' Koulierakis ↑ · Seelt ↓
61' Svanberg ↑ · Wimmer ↓
61' Eriksen ↑ · Gerhardt ↓
61' Wind ↑ · Pejcinovic ↓
84' Burger ↑ · Kumbedi ↓
Subs used · BAY
46' Quansah ↑ · Maza ↓
64' Terrier ↑ · Tillman ↓
75' Belocian ↑ · Grimaldo ↓
75' Kofane ↑ · Schick ↓
86' Tella ↑ · Poku ↓

Statistics

WOL 1 – 3 BAY
38%
Possession (%)
62%
2.22
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.12
21
Total Shots
7
10
Shots on Target
3
8
Shots off Target
4
14
Shots Inside Box
3
9
Corner Kicks
1
1
Offsides
0
12
Fouls
7
84%
Pass Accuracy (%)
90%
2
Yellow Cards
1
0
Goalkeeper Saves
9

Match events

17 · 1 – 3
9'
⚽
J. Hofmann
Assist · A. Grimaldo · 0–1
24'
⚽
E. Tapsoba
Assist · A. Garcia · 0–2
33'
⚽
M. Tillman
Assist · P. Schick · 0–3
Dženan Pejčinović
Yellow Card
▮
34'
Mohamed Amoura
Yellow Card
▮
40'
Half-time · 0 – 3
K. Koulierakis ↓ · J. Seelt ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
46'
46'
⇄
J. Quansah ↓ · I. Maza ↑
Substitution 1
D. Vavro
Assist · M. Arnold · 1–3
⚽
57'
M. Svanberg ↓ · P. Wimmer ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
61'
C. Eriksen ↓ · Y. Gerhardt ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
61'
J. Wind ↓ · D. Pejcinovic ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
61'
64'
⇄
M. Terrier ↓ · M. Tillman ↑
Substitution 2
75'
⇄
J. Belocian ↓ · A. Grimaldo ↑
Substitution 3
75'
⇄
C. Kofane ↓ · P. Schick ↑
Substitution 4
76'
▮
Robert Andrich
Yellow Card
J. Burger ↓ · S. Kumbedi ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
84'
86'
⇄
N. Tella ↓ · E. Poku ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 1 – 3

Match recap

Bayer Leverkusen won 3–1 away at VfL Wolfsburg. At half-time it was 0–3.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 62% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.22 to 1.12. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 21 shots to 7, 10 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 9 to 1. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 9 saves. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 3 from 1.12 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: J. Hofmann (9'), E. Tapsoba (24'), M. Tillman (33'), D. Vavro (57').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.90 units (Brier 0.131).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Away Win 2.10 — 56% Cashed +1.10 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.65 — 38% Cashed +1.65 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.68 — 60% Cashed +0.68 Cashed
BTTS No 2.57 — 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.38 — 40% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.85 — 44% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 2.70 — 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.35 — 79% Cashed +0.35 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.57 — 62% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.55 — 61% Cashed +0.55 Cashed
AH Away 0 1.53 — 56% Cashed +0.53 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.04 — 95% Cashed +0.04 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.20 — 82% Cashed +0.20 Cashed
Draw 3.95 — 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 5.00 — 18% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 17.00 — 5% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 3.59 — 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −3.90u −23% ROI
Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
WOL – BAY @ 1.35
+7.2%
Edge
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