FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim 1:1

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.56 — +9.5% better than the market.

1899 Hoffenheim arrive at Mewa Arena with clear momentum, boasting a strong recent run compared to Mainz's struggles. Hoffenheim's offensive edge against Mainz's defense suggests they can create chances, while Mainz's home advantage is limited by their poor form and defensive vulnerabilities. Expect Hoffenheim to press high and exploit Mainz's shaky backline.

Hoffenheim's superior quality and form
Home side's defensive frailties
Potential for a lively attacking game given the pace hinted by odds

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2

Double Chance X2 @ 1.56 ✓ Cashed

AI 70% Implied 64% +0.56u

+56%

ROI on stake

Lineups

MAI 3-4-2-1 · HOF 4-3-1-2

MAI · 3-4-2-1 4-3-1-2 · HOF

7 Lee

Subs used · MAI

46'

da Costa ↑ ·

Maloney ↓

46'

Kawasaki ↑ ·

Widmer ↓

67'

Weiper ↑ ·

Jae-Sung ↓

90'

Bell ↑ ·

Hollerbach ↓

Subs used · HOF

58'

Lemperle ↑ ·

Kramaric ↓

77'

Moerstedt ↑ ·

Toure ↓

90'

Bebou ↑ ·

Asllani ↓

Statistics

MAI 1 – 1 HOF

46%

Possession (%)

54%

2.53

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.47

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

71%

Pass Accuracy (%)

73%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

15 · 1 – 1

⚽

A. Hanche-Olsen

Own goal · Assist · W. Burger · 0–1

Silvan Widmer

Yellow Card

▮

24'

42'

▮

Bernardo

Yellow Card

Half-time · 0 – 1

D. da Costa ↓ · L. Maloney ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

S. Kawasaki ↓ · S. Widmer ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

46'

58'

⇄

T. Lemperle ↓ · A. Kramaric ↑

Substitution 1

N. Weiper ↓ · Lee Jae-Sung ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

67'

68'

▮

Robin Hranáč

Yellow Card

D. da Costa

Assist · B. Hollerbach · 1–1

⚽

76'

77'

⇄

M. Moerstedt ↓ · B. Toure ↑

Substitution 2

Dominik Kohr

Red Card

▮

88'

S. Bell ↓ · B. Hollerbach ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

90'

⇄

I. Bebou ↓ · F. Asllani ↑

Substitution 3

Nadiem Amiri

Yellow Card

▮

90+5'

Phillipp Mwene

Yellow Card

▮

90+6'

Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

FSV Mainz 05 and 1899 Hoffenheim drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–1.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.53 to 1.47. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 4. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: A. Hanche-Olsen (8'), D. da Costa (76'). Dominik Kohr was sent off in the 88' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.49 units (Brier 0.164).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.74	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.60	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.36	—	42%	Cashed	+1.36	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.69	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.65	—	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.01	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.66	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.96	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.56	—	70%	Cashed	+0.56	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.55	—	64%	Cashed	+0.55	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.54	—	60%	Cashed	+0.54	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.53	—	55%	Cashed	+0.53	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.04	—	94%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.21	—	80%	Cashed	+0.21	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.75	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.72	—	25%	Cashed	+2.72	Cashed
Under 0.5	16.00	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.49u	−15% ROI

FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim 1:1: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled