Match VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg November 9, 2025

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.70 — +10.3% better than the market.

VfB Stuttgart holds a clear quality edge and home momentum, reflected in their stronger recent form and higher scoring potential. Their defensive solidity contrasts with Augsburg's struggles at the back, suggesting Stuttgart can control the match tempo. Augsburg's attack faces a tough test against a compact Stuttgart defense, which may limit goal opportunities.

Stuttgart's home edge and recent wins boost confidence.
Augsburg's defensive vulnerabilities likely exploited.
Moderate pace expected, favoring structured play over frantic pressing.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.70 ✗ Lost

AI 65% Implied 59% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

STU 4-2-3-1 · AUG 3-4-2-1

STU · 4-2-3-1 3-4-2-1 · AUG

26 Undav ⚽

Subs used · STU

68'

Tomas ↑ ·

Bouanani ↓

74'

Nartey ↑ ·

Karazor ↓

74'

Fuhrich ↑ ·

El Khannouss ↓

90+1'

Vagnoman ↑ ·

Assignon ↓

90+1'

Andres ↑ ·

Undav ↓

Subs used · AUG

62'

Gouweleeuw ↑ ·

Banks ↓

62'

Essende ↑ ·

Claude-Maurice ↓

81'

Saad ↑ ·

Kade ↓

81'

Komur ↑ ·

Rieder ↓

84'

Wolf ↑ ·

Rexhbecaj ↓

📊 Statistics

STU 3 – 2 AUG

62%

Possession (%)

38%

2.72

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.99

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

82%

Pass Accuracy (%)

73%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

20 · 3 – 2

⚽

F. Rieder

Assist · A. Claude-Maurice · 0–1

17'

▮

Keven Schlotterbeck

Yellow Card

M. Mittelstadt (P)

Penalty · 1–1

⚽

18'

26'

⚽

H. Massengo

1–2

D. Undav

Assist · B. El Khannouss · 2–2

⚽

39'

Half-time · 2 – 2

50'

▮

Chrislain Matsima

Yellow Card

62'

⇄

J. Gouweleeuw ↓ · N. Banks ↑

Substitution 1

62'

⇄

S. Essende ↓ · A. Claude-Maurice ↑

Substitution 2

Lorenz Assignon

Yellow Card

▮

68'

T. Tomas ↓ · B. Bouanani ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

68'

74'

▮

Dimitrios Giannoulis

Yellow Card

N. Nartey ↓ · A. Karazor ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

74'

C. Fuhrich ↓ · B. El Khannouss ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

74'

D. Undav

Assist · A. Stiller · 3–2

⚽

80'

81'

⇄

E. Saad ↓ · A. Kade ↑

Substitution 3

81'

⇄

M. Komur ↓ · F. Rieder ↑

Substitution 4

84'

⇄

M. Wolf ↓ · E. Rexhbecaj ↑

Substitution 5

Nikolas Nartey

Yellow Card

▮

85'

J. Vagnoman ↓ · L. Assignon ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

90+1'

C. Andres ↓ · D. Undav ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90+1'

Full-time · 3 – 2

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.70	—	65%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.62	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.30	—	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.68	—	54%	Cashed	+0.68	Cashed
Double Chance X2	2.71	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.34	—	35%	Cashed	+1.34	Cashed
Home Win	1.55	—	68%	Cashed	+0.55	Cashed
Under 1.5	5.50	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.15	—	88%	Cashed	+0.15	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.55	—	56%	Cashed	+0.55	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.19	—	68%	Cashed	+0.19	Cashed
Under 0.5	20.00	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	4.83	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.03	—	94%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.17	—	79%	Cashed	+0.17	Cashed
Away Win	6.25	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	4.55	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−5.34u	−31% ROI