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Home › Germany › Germany Bundesliga › VfB Stuttgart — FC Augsburg

Match VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg November 9, 2025 — Result and Stats

Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga Value pick inside
VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart
Home · last 5 L D D W D
Kick-off
Sun 09 Nov · 16:30
3:2
Full-time
FC Augsburg
FC Augsburg
W D W W L Away · last 5
Referee Harm Osmers, Germany
Miss
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 65% · book 1.70 ✗
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 44% · book 2.62 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 46% · book 2.30 ✗
Total goals
5
3 · 2
xG (open play)
2.72 – 1.99
Δ +0.73
Possession
62% – 38%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.70 — +10.3% better than the market.

VfB Stuttgart holds a clear quality edge and home momentum, reflected in their stronger recent form and higher scoring potential. Their defensive solidity contrasts with Augsburg's struggles at the back, suggesting Stuttgart can control the match tempo. Augsburg's attack faces a tough test against a compact Stuttgart defense, which may limit goal opportunities.

  • Stuttgart's home edge and recent wins boost confidence.
  • Augsburg's defensive vulnerabilities likely exploited.
  • Moderate pace expected, favoring structured play over frantic pressing.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5
Under 3.5 @ 1.70 ✗ Lost
AI 65% Implied 59% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

STU 4-2-3-1 · AUG 3-4-2-1
STU · 4-2-3-1 3-4-2-1 · AUG 33 Nübel 22 Assignon 29 Jeltsch 23 Zagadou 7 Mittelstädt ⚽ 16 Karazor 6 Stiller 27 Bouanani 11 Khannouss 18 Leweling 26 Undav ⚽ 1 Dahmen 40 Banks 5 Matsima 31 Schlotterbeck 19 Fellhauer 4 Massengo ⚽ 8 Rexhbeçaj 13 Giannoulis 32 Rieder ⚽ 30 Kade 20 Claude-Maurice
Subs used · STU
68' Tomas ↑ · Bouanani ↓
74' Nartey ↑ · Karazor ↓
74' Fuhrich ↑ · El Khannouss ↓
90+1' Vagnoman ↑ · Assignon ↓
90+1' Andres ↑ · Undav ↓
Subs used · AUG
62' Gouweleeuw ↑ · Banks ↓
62' Essende ↑ · Claude-Maurice ↓
81' Saad ↑ · Kade ↓
81' Komur ↑ · Rieder ↓
84' Wolf ↑ · Rexhbecaj ↓

📊 Statistics

STU 3 – 2 AUG
62%
Possession (%)
38%
2.72
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.99
17
Total Shots
16
6
Shots on Target
6
6
Shots off Target
5
13
Shots Inside Box
10
4
Corner Kicks
4
3
Offsides
3
13
Fouls
10
82%
Pass Accuracy (%)
73%
2
Yellow Cards
3
4
Goalkeeper Saves
3

⏱ Match events

20 · 3 – 2
8'
⚽
F. Rieder
Assist · A. Claude-Maurice · 0–1
17'
▮
Keven Schlotterbeck
Yellow Card
M. Mittelstadt (P)
Penalty · 1–1
⚽
18'
26'
⚽
H. Massengo
1–2
D. Undav
Assist · B. El Khannouss · 2–2
⚽
39'
Half-time · 2 – 2
50'
▮
Chrislain Matsima
Yellow Card
62'
⇄
J. Gouweleeuw ↓ · N. Banks ↑
Substitution 1
62'
⇄
S. Essende ↓ · A. Claude-Maurice ↑
Substitution 2
Lorenz Assignon
Yellow Card
▮
68'
T. Tomas ↓ · B. Bouanani ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
68'
74'
▮
Dimitrios Giannoulis
Yellow Card
N. Nartey ↓ · A. Karazor ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
74'
C. Fuhrich ↓ · B. El Khannouss ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
74'
D. Undav
Assist · A. Stiller · 3–2
⚽
80'
81'
⇄
E. Saad ↓ · A. Kade ↑
Substitution 3
81'
⇄
M. Komur ↓ · F. Rieder ↑
Substitution 4
84'
⇄
M. Wolf ↓ · E. Rexhbecaj ↑
Substitution 5
Nikolas Nartey
Yellow Card
▮
85'
J. Vagnoman ↓ · L. Assignon ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
90+1'
C. Andres ↓ · D. Undav ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
90+1'
Full-time · 3 – 2

Match recap

VfB Stuttgart beat FC Augsburg 3–2 at home. At half-time it was 2–2.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 62% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 82% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.72 to 1.99. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: F. Rieder (8'), M. Mittelstadt (18'), H. Massengo (26'), D. Undav (39'), D. Undav (80').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.34 units (Brier 0.125).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 3.5 1.70 — 65% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.62 — 44% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.30 — 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.68 — 54% Cashed +0.68 Cashed
Double Chance X2 2.71 — 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.34 — 35% Cashed +1.34 Cashed
Home Win 1.55 — 68% Cashed +0.55 Cashed
Under 1.5 5.50 — 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.15 — 88% Cashed +0.15 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.55 — 56% Cashed +0.55 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.19 — 68% Cashed +0.19 Cashed
Under 0.5 20.00 — 6% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 4.83 — 20% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.03 — 94% Cashed +0.03 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.17 — 79% Cashed +0.17 Cashed
Away Win 6.25 — 12% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 4.55 — 12% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −5.34u −31% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 3.5
STU – AUG @ 1.70
+10.3%
Edge
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