Match VfB Stuttgart vs Maccabi Tel Aviv December 11, 2025

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 4.70 — +13.0% better than the market.

Stuttgart look clearly stronger than Maccabi Tel Aviv in both recent European performances and underlying metrics, and they also enjoy home advantage at the MHPArena. The German side consistently creates more xG and shots on target, while Maccabi concede a lot of chances and struggle badly away from home at this level. Over the full match Stuttgart should control possession and territory, making a home win highly likely, with a good chance they score multiple goals against a vulnerable defence.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2

Double Chance X2 @ 4.70 ✗ Lost

AI 24% Implied 21% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

STU 4-2-3-1 · MAC 5-4-1

STU · 4-2-3-1 5-4-1 · MAC

26 Undav

📊 Statistics

STU 4 – 1 MAC

67%

Possession (%)

33%

2.41

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.56

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

91%

Pass Accuracy (%)

80%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

VfB Stuttgart beat Maccabi Tel Aviv 4–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 67% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 91% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.41 to 0.56. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 7, 7 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 2. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 4 from 2.41 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -6.33 units (Brier 0.075).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS No	2.05	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	14.00	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	4.70	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	3.45	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.12	—	91%	Cashed	+0.12	Cashed
Over 3.5	1.96	—	52%	Cashed	+0.96	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.81	—	56%	Cashed	+0.81	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.02	—	97%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Draw	6.97	—	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	2.02	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.36	—	70%	Cashed	+0.36	Cashed
Home Win	1.25	—	76%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.05	—	90%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.10	—	76%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Under 1.5	8.00	—	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	7.20	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	24.00	—	3%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−6.33u	−37% ROI

Match VfB Stuttgart vs Maccabi Tel Aviv December 11, 2025 — Result and Stats

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 4.70 — +13.0% better than the market.

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled