Match AEK Athens FC vs Larisa March 7, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS No at 1.65 — +8.4% better than the market.

AEK Athens FC enters this clash with a clear quality edge and solid home momentum, backed by a sturdy defense that challenges Larisa's attack. Larisa's recent form shows signs of revival, but their defensive vulnerabilities could be exploited by AEK's efficient offensive transitions. The match is likely to feature a controlled tempo, favoring a compact home block and cautious away approach.

Home defensive solidity vs away attacking struggles
Recent form favors AEK's consistency
Moderate pace suggests tactical discipline

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · BTTS No

BTTS No @ 1.65 ✓ Cashed

AI 66% Implied 61% +0.65u

+65%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

AEK 4-2-2-2 · AEL 5-4-1

AEK · 4-2-2-2 5-4-1 · AEL

25 Varga

📊 Statistics

AEK 1 – 0 AEL

61%

Possession (%)

39%

3.00

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.53

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Fouls

88%

Pass Accuracy (%)

78%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

AEK Athens FC beat Larisa 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 61% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 88% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 3.00 to 0.53. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 9, 8 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 3. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 7 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 16 graded markets, 7 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.93 units (Brier 0.117).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

16 · 7 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS No	1.65	—	66%	Cashed	+0.65	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.23	—	54%	Cashed	+1.23	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.36	—	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.72	—	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.77	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.49	—	75%	Cashed	+0.49	Cashed
Under 0.5	13.00	—	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.35	—	32%	Cashed	+3.35	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.05	—	95%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Home Win	1.25	—	78%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Draw	6.30	—	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	4.54	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	—	87%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.24	—	68%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	14.00	—	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	8.50	—	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 16 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 9 L	−2.93u	−18% ROI