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Home Germany Germany Bundesliga Werder Bremen — FC St. Pauli

Match Werder Bremen vs FC St. Pauli October 4, 2025 — Result and Stats

Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen
Home · last 5 W D L L L
Kick-off
Sat 04 Oct · 13:30
1:0
Full-time
FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli
D L L L L Away · last 5
Referee Sören Storks, Germany
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 39% · book 3.10
Miss
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 66% · book 1.64
Miss
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 54% · book 1.84
Total goals
1
1 · 0
xG (open play)
1.58 – 0.75
Δ +0.83
Possession
41% – 59%
AI accuracy
2 / 7
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

Werder Bremen vs FC St. Pauli: St. Pauli grade slightly stronger overall, but Bremen’s venue edge should keep this close. Expect an open rhythm with both sides creating in transition; the first goal will heavily shape control.

The model leans toward the visitors avoiding defeat, with modest preference to clear the standard goals line. Conservative angles: X2 and Over 2.5 in main markets; higher variance sits on away win and the bigger total.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Lineups

WER 4-3-3 · PAU 3-4-1-2
Subs used · WER
45' Schmidt ↑ · Agu
60' Grull ↑ · Njinmah
81' Covic ↑ · Puertas
81' Boniface ↑ · Mbangula
Subs used · PAU
71' Saliakas ↑ · Pyrka
71' Metcalfe ↑ · Sands
71' Ceesay ↑ · Ritzka

📊 Statistics

WER 10 PAU
41%
Possession (%)
59%
1.58
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.75
15
Total Shots
13
5
Shots on Target
3
3
Shots off Target
6
10
Shots Inside Box
6
5
Corner Kicks
0
3
Offsides
1
8
Fouls
9
78%
Pass Accuracy (%)
83%
3
Yellow Cards
0
3
Goalkeeper Saves
4

Match events

12 · 1 – 0
S. Mbangula
1–0
2'
I. Schmidt ↓ · F. Agu ↑
Substitution 1
45'
Half-time · 1 – 0
M. Grull ↓ · J. Njinmah ↑
Substitution 2
60'
Cameron Puertas
Yellow Card
68'
71'
M. Saliakas ↓ · A. Pyrka ↑
Substitution 1
71'
C. Metcalfe ↓ · J. Sands ↑
Substitution 2
71'
A. Ceesay ↓ · L. Ritzka ↑
Substitution 3
Jens Stage
Yellow Card
72'
P. Covic ↓ · C. Puertas ↑
Substitution 3
81'
V. Boniface ↓ · S. Mbangula ↑
Substitution 4
81'
Marco Grüll
Yellow Card
90'
90+5'
Manolis Saliakas
Yellow Card
Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Werder Bremen beat FC St. Pauli 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 59% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.58 to 0.75. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 5 to 0. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: S. Mbangula (2').

Model audit for this match: of 7 graded markets, 2 landed and 5 missed, for a net -2.55 units (Brier 0.249).

Bet recap · markets settled

7 · 2 W · 5 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Away Win 3.10 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.64 66% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.84 54% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.32 43% Cashed +1.32 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.13 46% Cashed +1.13 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.90 31% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.19 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 7 markets @ 1u each 2 W · 5 L −2.55u −36% ROI