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Prognosist
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⚽ Football 57 + Value 23 📈 Forecasts
Football England Premier League Sunderland — Chelsea
Sunderland
Sunderland
Home · last 5 L L D D W
Kick-off
Sun 24 May · 15:00
:
Pre-match · scheduled
Chelsea
Chelsea
L L L D W Away · last 5
Stadium of Light · Sunderland Referee C. Kavanagh
Home Win · SUN
20%
Best 3.70
Draw
25%
Best 3.84
Away Win · CHE
56%
Best 2.06
Best bet
Under 2.5
@ 2.17
Fair odds
2.09
book 2.17 · +3.7% better than market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Best bet confidence
Low
p 48% · EV +3.7%
AI preview · 90 sec read

AI sees no standout edge in this market — odds and probabilities line up.

Premier League Clash at Stadium of Light

Sunderland hosts Chelsea in a match where the visitors hold a clear quality edge, backed by stronger offensive numbers. Chelsea’s attacking threat contrasts with Sunderland’s resilient but vulnerable defense, suggesting a tactical battle. Sunderland’s recent home form shows some momentum, but Chelsea’s pressing edge and higher overall strength could tilt the balance. Expect a moderately paced game with chances on both ends, though Chelsea’s sharper attack might find the breakthrough.

  • Sunderland’s home compact block vs Chelsea’s dynamic offense
  • Recent form favors Sunderland slightly but Chelsea’s quality is superior
  • Moderate goal environment hinted by balanced over/under odds

Market · Fair (consensus)

4 bookmakers consensus · 15-min refresh
Market Best bookmaker Fair (consensus) AI prob. Edge
Double Chance X2 1.32 1.29 80% +6.0% Watch
Under 1.5 4.33 4.20 24% +3.8% Watch
Under 2.5 2.17 2.10 48% +3.7% Watch
BTTS No 2.25 2.20 46% +3.5% Watch
Under 3.5 1.44 1.40 69% −0.2% Pass
Over 0.5 1.04 1.01 93% −3.6% Pass
Under 0.5 13.10 13.00 7% −4.9% Pass
Over 2.5 1.81 1.73 52% −5.5% Pass
Draw 3.81 3.78 24% −6.8% Pass
Over 1.5 1.22 1.21 76% −7.3% Pass
BTTS Yes 1.65 1.64 54% −10.9% Pass
Over 3.5 2.80 2.75 31% −14.1% Pass
Double Chance 1X 1.85 1.80 44% −18.3% Pass
Home Win 3.72 3.50 20% −26.8% Pass
Double Chance X2
book 1.32 · fair 1.29 · 80%
+6.0%
Watch
Under 1.5
book 4.33 · fair 4.20 · 24%
+3.8%
Watch
Under 2.5
book 2.17 · fair 2.10 · 48%
+3.7%
Watch
BTTS No
book 2.25 · fair 2.20 · 46%
+3.5%
Watch
Under 3.5
book 1.44 · fair 1.40 · 69%
−0.2%
Pass
Over 0.5
book 1.04 · fair 1.01 · 93%
−3.6%
Pass
Under 0.5
book 13.10 · fair 13.00 · 7%
−4.9%
Pass
Over 2.5
book 1.81 · fair 1.73 · 52%
−5.5%
Pass
Draw
book 3.81 · fair 3.78 · 24%
−6.8%
Pass
Over 1.5
book 1.22 · fair 1.21 · 76%
−7.3%
Pass
BTTS Yes
book 1.65 · fair 1.64 · 54%
−10.9%
Pass
Over 3.5
book 2.80 · fair 2.75 · 31%
−14.1%
Pass
Double Chance 1X
book 1.85 · fair 1.80 · 44%
−18.3%
Pass
Home Win
book 3.72 · fair 3.50 · 20%
−26.8%
Pass
Best bookmaker — highest offer across all bookmakers. Fair (consensus) — median of all bookmakers with the bookmaker margin removed. AI prob. — AI's estimated probability of the outcome. Edge — how much the best bookmaker beats the AI-implied price (positive = value). ★ Top pick — highest-EV value bet; Watch — positive edge below the value threshold; Pass — no edge.

Head-to-Head Performance

last 10 H2H · per match
1.08
Goals Scored
1.54
1.27
Goals Conceded
1.35
0.99
Expected Goals (xG)
1.71
3.35
Shots on Target
4.43
3.57
Corners
6.05
44.95
Possession (%)
57.76
99.59
Efficiency index
93.91
75.89
Adjusted index
93.98
Eff. index — performance vs season baseline. Adj. index — efficiency normalised for opponent strength.

📡 Team strength

0–100 rating vs league · season-to-date
5
OFF · home
70
60
DEF · home
25
10
OFF · away
85
40
DEF · away
80
Each axis is rated 0–100 against all teams in the same league this season. 100 = league best on that axis, 0 = league worst. Higher is better.

📈 Odds movement · 1X2

72 hours · 4 bookmakers
Home Win Draw Away Win

🎯 Scenario insights

Sunderland wins when scoring first
50%
Chelsea wins when scoring first
100%
Sunderland BTTS rate · last 10
50%
Chelsea BTTS rate · last 10
40%
Sunderland Over 2.5 · last 10
40%
Chelsea Over 2.5 · last 10
70%
Sunderland comeback rate · last 10
50%
Chelsea comeback rate · last 10
0%

🔥 Goal timing

Sunderland · last 10 at home

0–15 0%
16–30 14%
31–45 29%
46–60 0%
61–75 43%
76–90 14%

Chelsea · last 10 away

0–15 7%
16–30 0%
31–45 40%
46–60 20%
61–75 27%
76–90 7%
Balanced — goals spread evenly across the match.

Top scorers

João Pedro
CHE · Attacker
15 G · 0.52 g/90
E. Fernández
CHE · Midfielder
10 G · 0.30 g/90