Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth — Preview, Lineups & AI Prediction

AI preview · 90 sec read

AI sees no standout edge in this market — odds and probabilities line up.

Premier League Clash at City Ground

Nottingham Forest hosts Bournemouth in a match where the visitors hold a clear quality edge and a slight attacking advantage. Forest’s recent home form shows resilience, but Bournemouth’s sharper offense and better recent points per game suggest they can press effectively. Expect a tactical battle with Bournemouth likely to exploit Forest’s defensive vulnerabilities, while Forest’s home momentum and compact block could keep it tight.

Bournemouth’s offensive edge vs Forest’s defense
Forest’s home momentum and recent wins
Moderate pace hinted by balanced goal odds

⚖ Market · Fair (consensus)

4 bookmakers consensus · 15-min refresh

Market	Best bookmaker	Fair (consensus)	AI prob.	Edge
Double Chance X2	1.37	1.30	78%	+7.4%	Watch
BTTS No	2.55	2.51	40%	+2.2%	Watch
Under 2.5	2.45	2.38	41%	+1.6%	Watch
Under 3.5	1.57	1.62	63%	−0.8%	Pass
Under 1.5	5.00	5.00	20%	−2.0%	Pass
Over 2.5	1.65	1.53	59%	−3.4%	Pass
Over 0.5	1.02	1.03	94%	−3.7%	Pass
Under 0.5	17.00	15.00	6%	−5.1%	Pass
Draw	3.92	3.78	24%	−5.7%	Pass
Over 1.5	1.17	1.14	80%	−5.9%	Pass
BTTS Yes	1.55	1.50	60%	−7.1%	Pass
Over 3.5	2.38	2.38	37%	−12.4%	Pass
Double Chance 1X	1.79	1.78	46%	−18.3%	Pass
Home Win	3.40	3.40	22%	−26.6%	Pass

Double Chance X2

book 1.37 · fair 1.30 · 78%

+7.4%

Watch

BTTS No

book 2.55 · fair 2.51 · 40%

+2.2%

Watch

Under 2.5

book 2.45 · fair 2.38 · 41%

+1.6%

Watch

Under 3.5

book 1.57 · fair 1.62 · 63%

−0.8%

Pass

Under 1.5

book 5.00 · fair 5.00 · 20%

−2.0%

Pass

Over 2.5

book 1.65 · fair 1.53 · 59%

−3.4%

Pass

Over 0.5

book 1.02 · fair 1.03 · 94%

−3.7%

Pass

Under 0.5

book 17.00 · fair 15.00 · 6%

−5.1%

Pass

Draw

book 3.92 · fair 3.78 · 24%

−5.7%

Pass

Over 1.5

book 1.17 · fair 1.14 · 80%

−5.9%

Pass

BTTS Yes

book 1.55 · fair 1.50 · 60%

−7.1%

Pass

Over 3.5

book 2.38 · fair 2.38 · 37%

−12.4%

Pass

Double Chance 1X

book 1.79 · fair 1.78 · 46%

−18.3%

Pass

Home Win

book 3.40 · fair 3.40 · 22%

−26.6%

Pass

Best bookmaker — highest offer across all bookmakers. Fair (consensus) — median of all bookmakers with the bookmaker margin removed. AI prob. — AI's estimated probability of the outcome. Edge — how much the best bookmaker beats the AI-implied price (positive = value). ★ Top pick — highest-EV value bet; Watch — positive edge below the value threshold; Pass — no edge.

⚔ Head-to-Head Performance

last 10 H2H · per match

1.27

Goals Scored

1.54

1.35

Goals Conceded

1.43

1.18

Expected Goals (xG)

1.66

4.08

Shots on Target

4.70

5.19

Corners

5.65

46.76

Possession (%)

49.86

101.92

Efficiency index

96.12

80.71

Adjusted index

95.60

Eff. index — performance vs season baseline. Adj. index — efficiency normalised for opponent strength.

📡 Team strength

0–100 rating vs league · season-to-date

OFF · home

DEF · home

OFF · away

DEF · away

Each axis is rated 0–100 against all teams in the same league this season. 100 = league best on that axis, 0 = league worst. Higher is better.

📈 Odds movement · 1X2

72 hours · 4 bookmakers

Home Win Draw Away Win

🎯 Scenario insights

①

Nottingham Forest wins when scoring first

67%

①

Bournemouth wins when scoring first

67%

⚽

Nottingham Forest BTTS rate · last 10

60%

⚽

Bournemouth BTTS rate · last 10

60%

↑

Nottingham Forest Over 2.5 · last 10

50%

↑

Bournemouth Over 2.5 · last 10

50%

↩

Nottingham Forest comeback rate · last 10

33%

↩

Bournemouth comeback rate · last 10

🔥 Goal timing

Nottingham Forest · last 10 at home

0–15 13%

16–30 0%

31–45 13%

46–60 13%

61–75 25%

76–90 37%

Bournemouth · last 10 away

0–15 8%

16–30 15%

31–45 23%

46–60 8%

61–75 31%

76–90 15%

Late-game scoring — most goals come after the 60th.

Top scorers

M. Gibbs-White

NOT · Midfielder

14 G · 0.42 g/90

E. Kroupi

BOU · Attacker

13 G · 0.72 g/90

A. Semenyo

BOU · Midfielder

10 G · 0.50 g/90