Match Genk vs OH Leuven November 30, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.12 — +9.4% better than the market.

Genk enters this clash with a clear quality edge and strong home momentum, having won three of their last five. Their solid defensive setup should challenge OH Leuven's attack, which has struggled on the road.

Genk's pressing and compact block can stifle Leuven's forward play.
Home crowd support at Cegeka Arena adds to their confidence.
Leuven's recent away form shows signs of vulnerability, especially defensively.

The match pace looks balanced, favoring a controlled tempo where Genk can exploit their tactical superiority and set-piece threat. Expect a disciplined home side aiming to secure points without overexposing themselves.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.12 ✗ Lost

AI 52% Implied 47% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

GEN 4-2-3-1 · LEU 5-4-1

GEN · 4-2-3-1 5-4-1 · LEU

99 Erabi

📊 Statistics

GEN 2 – 1 LEU

66%

Possession (%)

34%

1.88

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.81

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

88%

Pass Accuracy (%)

76%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Genk beat OH Leuven 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 66% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 88% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.88 to 0.81. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 23 shots to 11, 8 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 10 to 2. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.70 units (Brier 0.107).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.12	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.95	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.87	—	48%	Cashed	+0.87	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.76	—	48%	Cashed	+0.76	Cashed
Double Chance X2	2.50	—	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.45	—	73%	Cashed	+0.45	Cashed
Home Win	1.57	—	66%	Cashed	+0.57	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.25	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.15	—	88%	Cashed	+0.15	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.20	—	66%	Cashed	+0.20	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.90	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	13.80	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	—	92%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Draw	4.25	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.25	—	73%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Away Win	6.00	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	4.70	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−5.70u	−34% ROI