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Home › England › Premier League › Tottenham — Leeds

Tottenham vs Leeds 1:1: Match Review & Stats

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Tottenham
Tottenham
Home · last 5 W W D L W
Kick-off
Mon 11 May · 19:00
1:1
Full-time
Leeds
Leeds
D W D W L Away · last 5
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium · London Referee J. Gillett
Hit
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 55% · book 2.05 ✓
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 51% · book 2.15 ✓
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 48% · book 2.15 ✗
Total goals
2
1 · 1
xG (open play)
1.32 – 1.26
Δ +0.06
Possession
57% – 43%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 4.33 — +13.7% better than the market.

Tottenham hosts Leeds in a clash where the visitors hold a slight quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they arrive with momentum. Tottenham’s defensive solidity contrasts with Leeds’ sharper attack, setting up an intriguing tactical battle. The home side’s moderate home edge is tempered by Leeds’ ability to press and create chances, hinting at a competitive, possibly tight game.

  • Leeds’ attacking threat challenges Tottenham’s disciplined defense
  • Home crowd support may boost Tottenham’s resilience
  • Recent form favors Leeds, but Tottenham’s home tactics could stifle them

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5
Under 1.5 @ 4.33 ✗ Lost
AI 26% Implied 23% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

TOT 4-2-3-1 · LEE 4-3-3
Subs used · TOT
81' Bergvall ↑ · Bentancur ↓
85' Maddison ↑ · Tel ↓
85' Spence ↑ · Udogie ↓
Subs used · LEE
56' Bornauw ↑ · Struijk ↓
63' Nmecha ↑ · Aaronson ↓
63' Gnonto ↑ · James ↓
90+3' Longstaff ↑ · Tanaka ↓

Statistics

TOT 1 – 1 LEE
57%
Possession (%)
43%
1.32
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.26
16
Total Shots
11
3
Shots on Target
4
7
Shots off Target
6
13
Shots Inside Box
6
14
Corner Kicks
2
1
Offsides
3
12
Fouls
7
80%
Pass Accuracy (%)
72%
3
Yellow Cards
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
1

Match events

14 · 1 – 1
K. Danso
Yellow Card
▮
41'
Half-time · 0 – 0
M. Tel
1–0
⚽
50'
56'
⇄
S. Bornauw ↓ · P. Struijk ↑
Substitution 1
63'
⇄
L. Nmecha ↓ · B. Aaronson ↑
Substitution 2
63'
⇄
W. Gnonto ↓ · D. James ↑
Substitution 3
J. Palhinha
Yellow Card
▮
66'
74'
⚽
D. Calvert-Lewin (P)
Penalty · 1–1
79'
▮
J. Rodon
Yellow Card
L. Bergvall ↓ · R. Bentancur ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
81'
P. Porro
Yellow Card
▮
82'
J. Maddison ↓ · M. Tel ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
85'
D. Spence ↓ · D. Udogie ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
85'
90+3'
⇄
S. Longstaff ↓ · A. Tanaka ↑
Substitution 4
R. De Zerbi
Yellow Card
▮
90+5'
Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Tottenham and Leeds drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 57% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 80% of their passes. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 11, 3 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 14 to 2. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: M. Tel (50'), D. Calvert-Lewin (74').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.97 units (Brier 0.162).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2 2.05 2.00 55% Cashed +1.05 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.15 2.00 51% Cashed +1.15 Cashed
BTTS No 2.15 2.06 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.81 1.80 49% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.70 1.74 52% Cashed +0.70 Cashed
Home Win 1.86 1.80 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 4.22 4.39 31% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 4.33 4.00 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.44 1.36 72% Cashed +0.44 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.27 1.21 69% Cashed +0.27 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.85 3.00 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 13.90 12.05 8% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 3.24 3.26 31% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.42 1.34 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 4.16 3.85 23% Cashed +3.16 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.04 1.02 92% Cashed +0.04 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.22 1.24 74% Cashed +0.22 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −1.97u −12% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
TOT – LEE @ 4.33
+13.7%
Edge
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