Match KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden October 4, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden: hosts carry a small edge on overall strength and venue, but the gap is narrow and both sides profile as mid-tempo with comparable shot quality. That keeps the draw very live and pushes us toward conservative core markets.

Our baseline leans slightly under the main total with both teams capable in transitions rather than sustained pressure. Early goal risk can open the game, but the central pathway remains a tight contest decided by moments.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

📊 Statistics

MEC 1 – 3 TRU

50%

Possession (%)

50%

0.97

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

3.26

10

Total Shots

19

3

Shots on Target

9

4

Shots off Target

4

8

Shots Inside Box

14

5

Corner Kicks

8

0

Offsides

2

18

Fouls

14

79%

Pass Accuracy (%)

80%

3

Yellow Cards

1

6

Goalkeeper Saves

3

Match recap

St. Truiden won 3–1 away at KV Mechelen. At half-time it was 1–0.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 3.26 to 0.97. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 19 shots to 10, 9 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 8 to 5. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 7 graded markets, 3 landed and 4 missed, for a net -0.25 units (Brier 0.252).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

7 · 3 W · 4 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.15	—	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.80	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.40	—	30%	Cashed	+2.40	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.73	—	57%	Cashed	+0.73	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.45	—	68%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.62	—	60%	Cashed	+0.62	Cashed
Home Win	2.20	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 7 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	3 W · 4 L	−0.25u	−4% ROI