Match Kasımpaşa vs Kocaelispor May 3, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.64 — +12.0% better than the market.

Kasimpasa hosts Kocaelispor in a tightly poised Süper Lig clash. The away side holds a slight quality edge and defensive solidity, but Kasimpasa's home momentum and sharper recent form could balance the scales. Both teams show cautious attacking traits, hinting at a compact, low-scoring affair.

Kasimpasa's home edge suggests disciplined defense and set-piece threat.
Kocaelispor's stronger defense may stifle Kasimpasa's offense.
Recent form favors a tight contest with limited goal opportunities.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.64 ✓ Cashed

AI 68% Implied 61% +0.64u

+64%

ROI on stake

📊 Statistics

KAS 1 – 1 KOC

61%

Possession (%)

39%

0.85

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.64

13

Total Shots

5

4

Shots on Target

1

5

Shots off Target

4

Shots Inside Box

4

6

Corner Kicks

5

0

Offsides

1

14

Fouls

17

84%

Pass Accuracy (%)

79%

0

Yellow Cards

1

0

Goalkeeper Saves

3

Match recap

Kasımpaşa and Kocaelispor drew 1–1. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 61% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 13 shots to 5, 4 on target.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.51 units (Brier 0.161).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.64	—	68%	Cashed	+0.64	Cashed
BTTS No	1.80	—	62%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	2.75	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.67	—	63%	Cashed	+0.67	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.45	—	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.32	—	37%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	2.00	—	38%	Cashed	+1.00	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.38	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.61	—	37%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.52	—	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	7.50	—	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.17	—	27%	Cashed	+2.17	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.33	—	64%	Cashed	+0.33	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.40	—	57%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.20	—	85%	Cashed	+0.20	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.08	—	84%	Cashed	+0.08	Cashed
Over 3.5	4.33	—	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.51u	−21% ROI