Match Galatasaray vs Fenerbahce April 26, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 1.65 — +8.0% better than the market.

Galatasaray holds a slight quality edge and benefits from a moderate home advantage, suggesting they can impose their game. Their offensive strength slightly outmatches Fenerbahce's defense, while the visitors' attack faces a tough Galatasaray backline. Recent form favors Galatasaray's momentum, though Fenerbahce’s resilience hints at a competitive clash. Expect a lively tempo with goal-scoring chances on both ends, supported by odds favoring over 2.5 goals.

Home edge in defense and attack
Better recent form for Galatasaray
Potential for open, attacking play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5

Over 2.5 @ 1.65 ✓ Cashed

AI 65% Implied 61% +0.65u

+65%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

GAL 4-2-3-1 · FEN 4-2-3-1

GAL · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · FEN

45 Osimhen

📊 Statistics

GAL 3 – 0 FEN

63%

Possession (%)

37%

2.76

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.25

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

87%

Pass Accuracy (%)

76%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Galatasaray beat Fenerbahce 3–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 63% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 87% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.76 to 1.25. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 21 shots to 5, 8 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 11 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.05 units (Brier 0.153).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	1.65	—	65%	Cashed	+0.65	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.50	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.25	—	49%	Cashed	+1.25	Cashed
BTTS No	2.40	—	35%	Cashed	+1.40	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.61	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.60	—	49%	Cashed	+0.60	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.20	—	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.27	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.36	—	75%	Cashed	+0.36	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.50	—	65%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.47	—	55%	Cashed	+0.47	Cashed
Away Win	3.05	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.18	—	84%	Cashed	+0.18	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.04	—	95%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Draw	3.30	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.40	—	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	12.10	—	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.05u	−24% ROI