Match Kayserispor vs Başakşehir January 24, 2026

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.17 — +11.6% better than the market.

Kayserispor vs Istanbul Basaksehir Preview

Kayserispor faces a tough challenge hosting Istanbul Basaksehir, who hold a clear quality edge and better recent form. The visitors' potent attack meets a home defense that has struggled, suggesting Istanbul Basaksehir may control the tempo and create more chances. However, Kayserispor's home momentum and compact block could limit the scoring, hinting at a balanced contest with moderate goal potential.

Istanbul Basaksehir's superior offensive firepower
Kayserispor's defensive resilience at home
Recent form favors visitors but home crowd may inspire resistance

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.17 ✗ Lost

AI 51% Implied 46% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

KAY 4-2-3-1 · IST 4-2-3-1

KAY · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · IST

9 Onugkha

📊 Statistics

KAY 0 – 3 IST

45%

Possession (%)

55%

0.38

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.48

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

80%

Pass Accuracy (%)

86%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Başakşehir won 3–0 away at Kayserispor. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 55% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.48 to 0.38. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 13 shots to 7, 7 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 10 to 4. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 3 from 1.48 expected goals.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.15 units (Brier 0.130).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.14	—	54%	Cashed	+1.14	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.17	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.30	—	48%	Cashed	+1.30	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.75	—	49%	Cashed	+0.75	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.63	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.77	—	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	2.60	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.47	—	73%	Cashed	+0.47	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.33	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.35	—	79%	Cashed	+0.35	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.54	—	54%	Cashed	+0.54	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.88	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	13.00	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	—	92%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Draw	3.70	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.25	—	73%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Home Win	3.45	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.15u	−24% ROI