Match Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük January 17, 2026

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.16 — +8.8% better than the market.

Istanbul Basaksehir enters this clash with a clear quality edge and home momentum, backed by a solid offensive output against a less resilient Fatih Karagümrük defense. The home side’s pressing and set-piece threat could exploit the visitors’ defensive vulnerabilities. Recent form favors Basaksehir slightly, suggesting they can control the pace and limit Karagümrük’s counterattacks.

Home attacking strength vs away defensive weakness
Basaksehir’s home comfort and pressing intensity
Fatih Karagümrük’s inconsistent form and defensive lapses

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.16 ✗ Lost

AI 50% Implied 46% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

IST 4-2-3-1 · KAR 4-2-3-1

IST · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · KAR

10 Costa

📊 Statistics

IST 2 – 1 KAR

62%

Possession (%)

38%

2.02

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.65

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

89%

Pass Accuracy (%)

79%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Başakşehir beat Fatih Karagümrük 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 62% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 89% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.02 to 0.65. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 5 to 1. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.75 units (Brier 0.103).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.16	—	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.95	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.90	—	48%	Cashed	+0.90	Cashed
Double Chance X2	2.79	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.76	—	50%	Cashed	+0.76	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.47	—	72%	Cashed	+0.47	Cashed
Home Win	1.53	—	68%	Cashed	+0.53	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.13	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.13	—	89%	Cashed	+0.13	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.88	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.17	—	68%	Cashed	+0.17	Cashed
Under 0.5	13.70	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	—	92%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Draw	4.56	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.24	—	74%	Cashed	+0.24	Cashed
Away Win	6.75	—	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	5.32	—	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−5.75u	−34% ROI

Match Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük January 17, 2026 — Result and Stats

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.16 — +8.8% better than the market.

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled