Match Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir November 29, 2025

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.08 — +10.8% better than the market.

Istanbul Basaksehir arrives with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand despite Kasimpasa's home comfort. The visitors' stronger attack against Kasimpasa's defense hints at moments of pressure, while the home side's defensive solidity could keep the game tight. Expect a balanced tempo with tactical discipline and a moderate goal count.

Basaksehir's offensive edge challenges Kasimpasa's defense
Home side's compact block may limit chances
Recent form favors away momentum

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.08 ✗ Lost

AI 53% Implied 48% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

KAS 5-4-1 · IST 4-2-3-1

KAS · 5-4-1 4-2-3-1 · IST

77 Gueye

📊 Statistics

KAS 1 – 3 IST

50%

Possession (%)

50%

1.41

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.27

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

77%

Pass Accuracy (%)

82%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Başakşehir won 3–1 away at Kasımpaşa. At half-time it was 0–2.

In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 11, 5 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 12 to 3. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 3 from 1.27 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 9 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.64 units (Brier 0.191).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.27	—	52%	Cashed	+1.27	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.08	—	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.24	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.90	—	47%	Cashed	+0.90	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.69	—	52%	Cashed	+0.69	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.62	—	52%	Cashed	+0.62	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.69	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	2.38	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.10	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.38	—	77%	Cashed	+0.38	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.15	—	26%	Cashed	+2.15	Cashed
Under 0.5	12.00	—	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.39	—	74%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.06	—	91%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.29	—	72%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
Draw	3.54	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	3.25	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.64u	−16% ROI

Match Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir November 29, 2025 — Result and Stats

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.08 — +10.8% better than the market.

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled