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Home Netherlands Eredivisie Sparta Rotterdam — Excelsior

Predictions Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior May 17, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Netherlands   /   Eredivisie Value pick inside
Sparta Rotterdam
Sparta Rotterdam
Home · last 5 L L D L L
Kick-off
Sun 17 May · 12:30
2:3
Full-time
Excelsior
Excelsior
D W W D W Away · last 5
Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel · Rotterdam Referee A. Lindhout
Home Win · SPA
51%
Best 2.03
Draw
22%
Best 4.00
Away Win · EXC
26%
Best 3.40
Value pick
BTTS No
@ 2.81
Fair odds
2.45
book 2.81 · +14.8% vs market
Bookmakers polled
Pick confidence
Medium
p 41% · EV +14.8%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — BTTS Yes is more likely (59%), but BTTS No is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Best in group
Probability 51.4%
Odds 2.04
Show model details
Implied probability 49%
Bet quality Low
Draw
Probability 22.3%
Odds 4.16
Show model details
Implied probability 24%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 26.3%
Odds 3.30
Show model details
Implied probability 30.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 3.5 Value pick
Probability 63.3%
Odds 1.78
Show model details
Implied probability 56.2%
Bet quality High
Under 2.5
Probability 42.9%
Odds 2.70
Show model details
Implied probability 37%
Bet quality Medium
Over 3.5
Probability 36.7%
Odds 2.08
Show model details
Implied probability 48.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 20.9%
Odds 6.00
Show model details
Implied probability 16.7%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 57.2%
Odds 1.44
Show model details
Implied probability 69.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 5.7%
Odds 21.00
Show model details
Implied probability 4.8%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 94.3%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 79.1%
Odds 1.12
Show model details
Implied probability 89.3%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 40.9%
Odds 2.81
Show model details
Implied probability 35.6%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 59.1%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0
Probability 26.3%
Odds 2.50
Show model details
Implied probability 40%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 51.4%
Odds 1.58
Show model details
Implied probability 63.3%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 48.6%
Odds 1.85
Show model details
Implied probability 54.1%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 73.7%
Odds 1.36
Show model details
Implied probability 73.5%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · BTTS No
SPA – EXC @ 2.81
+14.8%
Edge
Forecast →