Match AZ Alkmaar vs Twente May 3, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AZ Alkmaar hosts Twente in a clash where the visitors hold a slight quality edge, but AZ’s home form and defensive solidity could balance the scales. The home side’s pressing and compact block might challenge Twente’s attack, which has struggled defensively. Recent form favors AZ slightly, suggesting a tight contest with potential for goals given both teams’ offensive capabilities.

AZ’s home momentum and defensive resilience
Twente’s pressing edge but defensive vulnerabilities
Moderate pace expected with goal-scoring chances on both ends

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

ALK 4-2-3-1 · TWE 4-2-3-1

ALK · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · TWE

9 Parrott

📊 Statistics

ALK 2 – 2 TWE

58%

Possession (%)

42%

1.37

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.46

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Fouls

84%

Pass Accuracy (%)

79%

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

AZ Alkmaar and Twente drew 2–2. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 58% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.37 to 0.46. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 18 shots to 9, 4 on target. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 2 from 0.46 expected goals.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.05 units (Brier 0.148).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.52	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.05	—	48%	Cashed	+1.05	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.80	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.90	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.58	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.95	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.53	—	70%	Cashed	+0.53	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.40	—	68%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.40	—	68%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
BTTS No	2.90	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.88	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.54	—	53%	Cashed	+0.54	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.02	—	96%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.11	—	86%	Cashed	+0.11	Cashed
Under 1.5	6.50	—	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.90	—	23%	Cashed	+2.90	Cashed
Under 0.5	23.00	—	4%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.05u	−18% ROI