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Home › Netherlands › Eredivisie › AZ Alkmaar — Heerenveen

Predictions by Market: AZ Alkmaar vs Heerenveen

Netherlands   /   Eredivisie Value pick inside
AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar
Home · last 5 W D D D D
Kick-off
Sun 12 Apr · 14:45
3:0
Full-time
Heerenveen
Heerenveen
W W L D L Away · last 5
AFAS Stadion(Alkmaar) · Alkmaar Referee Marc Nagtegaal, Netherlands

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · ALK
50%
Best 1.75
Draw
21%
Best 4.10
Away Win · HEE
29%
Best 4.00
Value pick
Double Chance X2
@ 2.25
Fair odds
1.99
book 2.25 · +13.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 50% · EV +13.0%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Double Chance 1X is more likely (71%), but Double Chance X2 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Best in group
Probability 49.8%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 29%
Odds 4.70
Show model details
Implied probability 21.3%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 21.2%
Odds 4.50
Show model details
Implied probability 22.2%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 48.1%
Odds 2.04
Show model details
Implied probability 49%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 51.9%
Odds 1.87
Show model details
Implied probability 53.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 68.9%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 31.1%
Odds 3.01
Show model details
Implied probability 33.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 96.4%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 86.7%
Odds 1.13
Show model details
Implied probability 88.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 13.3%
Odds 7.00
Show model details
Implied probability 14.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 3.6%
Odds 23.00
Show model details
Implied probability 4.4%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No
Probability 33.5%
Odds 2.80
Show model details
Implied probability 35.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 66.5%
Odds 1.44
Show model details
Implied probability 69.4%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 29%
Odds 3.45
Show model details
Implied probability 29%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 49.8%
Odds 1.38
Show model details
Implied probability 72.5%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 50.2%
Odds 2.25
Show model details
Implied probability 44.4%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 71%
Odds 1.23
Show model details
Implied probability 81.3%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
ALK – HEE @ 2.25
+13.0%
Edge
Forecast →