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Home › Netherlands › Eredivisie › AZ Alkmaar — Heracles

Predictions by Market: AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles

Netherlands   /   Eredivisie Value pick inside
AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar
Home · last 5 W D D D D
Kick-off
Sun 15 Mar · 13:30
4:0
Full-time
Heracles
Heracles
L L L L L Away · last 5
AFAS Stadion(Alkmaar) · Alkmaar Referee R. Hensgens

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · ALK
71%
Best 1.33
Draw
20%
Best 5.25
Away Win · HER
10%
Best 7.80
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 5.75
Fair odds
5.44
book 5.75 · +5.7% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 18% · EV +5.7%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (82%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Top pick
Probability 70.8%
Odds 1.45
Show model details
Implied probability 69%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 19.5%
Odds 5.00
Show model details
Implied probability 20%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 9.7%
Odds 7.50
Show model details
Implied probability 13.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 39.8%
Odds 2.65
Show model details
Implied probability 37.7%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 62%
Odds 1.66
Show model details
Implied probability 60.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 60.2%
Odds 1.60
Show model details
Implied probability 62.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 38%
Odds 2.45
Show model details
Implied probability 40.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 18.4%
Odds 5.75
Show model details
Implied probability 17.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 94.6%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 81.6%
Odds 1.19
Show model details
Implied probability 84%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 5.4%
Odds 17.00
Show model details
Implied probability 5.9%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No
Probability 45.8%
Odds 2.17
Show model details
Implied probability 46.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 54.2%
Odds 1.76
Show model details
Implied probability 56.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 70.8%
Odds 1.16
Show model details
Implied probability 86.2%
Bet quality Medium
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 9.7%
Odds 5.30
Show model details
Implied probability 18.9%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 90.3%
Odds 1.12
Show model details
Implied probability 89.3%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 29.2%
Odds 3.00
Show model details
Implied probability 33.3%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
ALK – HER @ 5.75
+5.7%
Edge
Forecast →