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Home Netherlands Eredivisie Excelsior — Ajax

Predictions Excelsior vs Ajax February 1, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Excelsior
Excelsior
Home · last 5 D W W D W
Kick-off
Sun 01 Feb · 11:15
2:2
Full-time
Ajax
Ajax
D L D W D Away · last 5
Referee M. Nagtegaal
Home Win · EXC
16%
Best 4.15
Draw
23%
Best 3.90
Away Win · AJA
61%
Best 1.78
Value pick
Away Win
@ 1.83
Fair odds
1.64
book 1.83 · +11.6% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
High
p 61% · EV +11.6%

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win Top pick
Probability 61%
Odds 1.83
Show model details
Implied probability 54.6%
Bet quality High
Draw
Probability 22.7%
Odds 4.15
Show model details
Implied probability 24.1%
Bet quality Low
Home Win
Probability 16.3%
Odds 4.50
Show model details
Implied probability 22.2%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 3.5
Probability 62%
Odds 1.62
Show model details
Implied probability 61.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 40.2%
Odds 2.50
Show model details
Implied probability 40%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 38%
Odds 2.43
Show model details
Implied probability 41.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 59.9%
Odds 1.57
Show model details
Implied probability 63.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 19.2%
Odds 5.11
Show model details
Implied probability 19.6%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 94.5%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 80.8%
Odds 1.18
Show model details
Implied probability 84.8%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 5.5%
Odds 16.50
Show model details
Implied probability 6.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 40.9%
Odds 2.45
Show model details
Implied probability 40.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 59.1%
Odds 1.57
Show model details
Implied probability 63.7%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0 Top pick
Probability 61%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Medium
AH Home 0
Probability 16.3%
Odds 3.12
Show model details
Implied probability 32.1%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X
Probability 39%
Odds 2.08
Show model details
Implied probability 48.1%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 83.7%
Odds 1.27
Show model details
Implied probability 78.7%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.