Match Sparta Rotterdam vs Heracles January 11, 2026

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.60 — +10.9% better than the market.

Sparta Rotterdam hosts Heracles in a clash where the visitors hold a slight quality edge, but the home side’s solid defensive shape and recent home momentum could keep things tight. Sparta’s compact block and ability to absorb pressure may challenge Heracles’ moderate attacking threat. The pace hints at a moderately open game, but both teams’ recent form suggests a cautious approach.

Sparta’s defensive resilience at home
Heracles’ better overall quality but away struggles
Balanced recent form with Sparta’s home momentum

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.60 ✓ Cashed

AI 69% Implied 63% +0.60u

+60%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

SPA 4-2-3-1 · HER 4-2-3-1

SPA · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · HER

9 Lauritsen

📊 Statistics

SPA 2 – 0 HER

51%

Possession (%)

49%

2.43

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.33

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

83%

Pass Accuracy (%)

80%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Sparta Rotterdam beat Heracles 2–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.43 to 0.33. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 22 shots to 6, 9 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 9 to 5. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 7 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.74 units (Brier 0.161).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.60	—	69%	Cashed	+0.60	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.42	—	48%	Cashed	+1.42	Cashed
BTTS No	2.48	—	46%	Cashed	+1.48	Cashed
Double Chance X2	2.00	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.63	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.89	—	44%	Cashed	+0.89	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.55	—	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	4.15	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	5.00	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.13	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.26	—	68%	Cashed	+0.26	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.57	—	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	17.00	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.04	—	93%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Draw	3.90	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.19	—	75%	Cashed	+0.19	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.38	—	44%	Cashed	+0.38	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.74u	−22% ROI

Match Sparta Rotterdam vs Heracles January 11, 2026 — Result and Stats

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.60 — +10.9% better than the market.

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled