Match AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar October 5, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AZ vs Telstar — betting preview

AZ carry a clear home edge at AFAS: deeper attacking patterns, better control between the lines and stronger game management. Telstar’s best route is transitional moments and set pieces, but sustained pressure away looks unlikely. If AZ score first, the match can open up; a longer stalemate keeps unders and BTTS No in play.

Pricing leans to an AZ-led game state. Most attractive angles are conservative unders around the 3.5 line and fades of a Telstar goal at current numbers.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

ALK 4-3-3 · STO 3-4-2-1

ALK · 4-3-3 3-4-2-1 · STO

17 Jensen

📊 Statistics

ALK 2 – 1 STO

59%

Possession (%)

41%

3.76

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.70

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

84%

Pass Accuracy (%)

74%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

AZ Alkmaar beat Telstar 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 59% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 84% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 3.76 to 0.70. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 27 shots to 14, 10 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 7 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 7 graded markets, 2 landed and 5 missed, for a net -3.78 units (Brier 0.106).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

7 · 2 W · 5 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS No	2.16	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.92	—	56%	Cashed	+0.92	Cashed
Under 2.5	3.10	—	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	10.00	—	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	6.46	—	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	3.78	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.30	—	74%	Cashed	+0.30	Cashed
Total · 7 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	2 W · 5 L	−3.78u	−54% ROI